How This June's Weather Might Be Different Than Last Year

 Linda Lam

Published: June 3, 2021

Weather conditions may be a bit different this June compared to June 2020 in some areas of the Lower 48, but that may not be the case in all regions.

Looking back to last June, the dominant upper-level pattern during the month was a ridge of high pressure, or northward bulge of the jet stream, over the central United States with southward dips in the jet stream, or troughs, over both the East and West coasts.

The weather pattern will likely be different this year, including the location of the upper-level ridge of high pressure. This will result in some differences in the weather.

Below, we take a look at what this could mean for both temperature and precipitation patterns for June 2021 compared to June 2020.

Temperature Comparison and Outlook

Last June's prevailing weather pattern, with a ridge of high pressure over the central U.S., resulted in hotter-than-average temperatures across the Plains, while cooler-than-average conditions were felt in the Southeast and portions of the West.

It was also overall a hot June in the Northeast. June 2020 was a top-10 warmest June in several states, including Delaware, New Jersey and much of New England. Caribou, Maine, started the month chilly, with lows in the 30s for the first three days of June. However, by mid-month, Caribou tied its record high for June when temperatures climbed to 96 degrees on June 19.

State Temperature Ranks for June 2020

This June may be another toasty one in the Northeast, and above-average temperatures will return to the region by the first weekend of the month. This heat will extend into parts of the Midwest as well and could be the theme of the month there.

(MORE: June Temperature Outlook)

Well-above-average temperatures are also expected in most areas west of the Rockies, which is not good news for drought and wildfire concerns across the West. This will also be a change from last year for much of the region – most of the Northwest and into the Great Basin experienced near-average temperatures in June 2020.

Another area that will likely find temperatures a bit different this year compared to last June is Texas. June 2020 had warmer-than-average conditions across Texas, but this year, below-average temperatures are likely due to the wet pattern that has developed in the region.

Soil moisture is well above average in eastern Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley, which will result in more of the sun's energy being used in evaporation and transpiration instead of heating the ground and the air above it. Additional clouds and rain will help to lower temperatures as well.

Florida might also be slightly cooler than average this June, whereas last year, hotter-than-average conditions were observed. The first six months of 2020 were the warmest January through June on record for Florida. Although this year has also generally been warmer than average, it has not been a repeat of last year.

June 2021 temperature outlook from The Weather Company.

Precipitation Comparison and Outlook

One area that might see notable precipitation differences this June is the Northwest into the northern and central Rockies, where conditions were wetter than average in 2020. This June, a drier-than-average month is expected, which will worsen drought conditions there.

The Southwest experienced drier-than-average conditions last June, and that may be the case again this year. The monsoon in the Southwest was mostly absent for most of the region in both 2020 and 2019, which helped to worsen the drought.

(MORE: Weather Changes That Typically Happen in June)

Precipitation Percent of Average for June 2020

A large area from Texas across the South into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys, as well as the mid-Atlantic, can expect wetter-than-average conditions this June. Similar conditions were observed in parts of these regions in June 2020, in part due to Tropical Storm Cristobal, which made landfall in Louisiana on June 7 and brought locally heavy rain.

As mentioned earlier, portions of the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley have experienced a wet spring and year-to-date. Lake Charles, Louisiana, is one area that has been hard-hit – the city has received almost 14 inches of precipitation more than average in 2021. Flooding concerns may continue in these areas if the wetter pattern persists.

Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains have reported less than half their average rainfall so far this year and the dry pattern looks like it may last through at least June. Portions of the Northern Plains also experienced a drier than average June last year.

June 2021 precipitation outlook from The Weather Company.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.