Gulf Tropical System Could Drench One of America's Most Rain-Fatigued Regions

 Chris Dolce

Published: June 18, 2021

One of America's most rain-fatigued regions could see more downpours from Tropical Storm Claudette this weekend.

Areas from eastern Texas into Louisiana and the lower Mississippi Valley have been repeatedly soaked since May. This is clear in the map below, which shows in green that soil moisture was much above average across all of those locations as of June 14, according to NOAA.

Soil moisture compared to average. Above average soil moisture is shaded green and below average soil moisture is shaded orange.

The Gulf system that we've been tracking for several days will likely bring additional rainfall to some of these already-soaked regions.

At least some flash flooding is expected, especially where the ground is saturated.

Flood watches have been issued for portions of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and northward into central Alabama and Georgia.

Multi-inch rainfall totals are possible from southeast Louisiana to parts of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle.

Upwards of a foot of rain may fall across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

Rainfall Forecast

Baton Rouge and New Orleans are a couple of the cities in Louisiana that could see at least some rain from this system. Both of those locations just had a May that ranked in the top five wettest on record, according to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center. Parts of the Baton Rouge area had serious flooding from heavy rainfall in mid-May.

Baton Rouge is having its wettest year to date on record through June 13. The Louisiana state capital has seen just over 45 inches of rain so far this year, or 16 inches more than they typically see in an average year by that date.

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A slow-moving weather system earlier in June soaked parts of Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama. Greenwood and Tupelo, Mississippi, had their wettest first 13 days of June on record.

Any additional heavy rain in those areas could stir up more flooding concerns.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.