By AccuWeather meteorologist
Updated May. 31, 2021 2:48 PM EDT
A persistent pattern of storminess has pelted parts of the south-central United States during the month of May. AccuWeather forecasters say the stream of storms will continue in parts of the region this week.
Earlier in May, the relentless deluge focused a bit farther east, with parts of southern and eastern Texas into Louisiana receiving the brunt of heavy rain and several rainfall records being broken. Over the weekend, the focus shifted farther west, with areas from Colorado and New Mexico into Kansas, Oklahoma and western and central Texas bearing the brunt of rainfall.
The latest onslaught began last Friday, with severe thunderstorms breaking out across the southern High Plains from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and West Texas. Damaging winds, baseball-sized hail and even a few tornadoes were reported across the area. On Saturday, storms erupted again in many of the same areas, although many brought mainly heavy rain with fewer reports of hail, damaging winds or tornadoes.
On Sunday, two tornadoes were reported in Colorado, in Park and Las Animas counties. According to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, the tornado in Park County was spotted over Eleven Mile Reservoir and caused no known damage. The tornado in Las Animas touched down for a few minutes.
Northeastern New Mexico and the Oklahoma panhandle also received multiple reports of tornadoes.
Forecasters say this similar pattern will continue to happen for at least the next few days.
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"A series of disturbances will continue to slide across the Rockies and into the Plains into the middle part of this week, moving along a front that will be positioned across the southern Plains," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham. "This will continue to cause areas of rain and thunderstorms to develop each day."
Buckingham explained that the trend will be for storms to erupt each afternoon and evening then move eastward through the southern Plains through the night before tapering off the next morning. The pattern will then repeat again the next day.
"This pattern will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms for many of the same areas over and over again through Tuesday night."
Cumulative rainfall will likely top 6 inches for some areas and may approach 10 inches where downpours are the most persistent, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 inches.
Flooded roads and areas of standing water can develop with the persistent rain. In areas with more rugged terrain, dangerous flash flooding can develop. Dry stream beds can quickly turn into raging torrents, even in areas where it's not raining if there are thunderstorms upstream.
As these thunderstorms develop, there will be the risk for severe thunderstorms as well each day.
"Thunderstorms will also carry a threat for damaging winds and large hail each day, especially as storms first erupt," Buckingham said. "Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out either."
As each night progresses, the severe thunderstorm threat will generally lessen, but there can still be localized instances of severe thunderstorms even into the morning hours.
Locally drenching and robust storms are also forecast to expand eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday. A few communities from eastern Oklahoma to southern Indiana could be hit by storms with strong winds and flash flooding by Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Despite the threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding, the rain will also be welcome for much of the area. According the the United States Drought Monitor, portions of far western Texas as well as eastern New Mexico remain in extreme or exceptional drought. Some of these areas could get a few inches of rainfall by the middle of the week.
Rainfall across the southern Plains over the last month has already erased even more widespread drought conditions. At the end of April, drought conditions extended much farther south and east in Texas and Oklahoma, as well as farther north in parts of eastern Colorado. Much of that drought has already been erased by recent heavy rain. Drought conditions are likely to shrink back even further this week as the focus of heavy rain shifts farther west.
Later in the week, another shift in the pattern may allow for a brief reprieve in widespread downpours for parts of Texas and southern Plains, but showers and thunderstorms are unlikely to shut off completely, and the pattern looks to remain relatively active into early June.
A comparison of drought conditions from April 27 (left) to May 25 (right). Drought conditions can be seen farther north and east in the southern Plains on April 27 when compared to May 25. (US Drought Monitor)
AccuWeather's long-range forecasting team explains that the pattern of disturbances coming out of the Southwest looks to remain in place, which usually translates to the southern Plains being active as the systems move eastward.
"In the Southwest, it will remain dry, but as these systems move east and tap into moisture being funneled into the southern Plains from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, showers and thunderstorms will continue, as will the threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
Areas of downpours and thunderstorms are likely going to migrate daily around the southern Plains through the first part of June.
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