By AccuWeather Meteorologist
Updated Apr. 29, 2021 9:34 AM EDT
A parade of storms will keep the risk of flooding high across the flood-weary south-central United States through the weekend and into early next week.
Drenching severe thunderstorms roved the Plains Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping up to 8 inches across parts of Colorado and almost 7 inches in Oklahoma.
Pauls Valley, Oklahoma, which is located about 58 miles south of Oklahoma City, had intense flash flooding in the streets, with reports of stranded cars and water in buildings Tuesday night.
Storms continued into Wednesday and Wednesday night, producing heavy rainfall and hail. Baseball-sized hail was reported at the Laughlin Air Force Base in Texas, as well as in Eagle Mountain, Saginaw, Texas.
Flooding has been a major concern into midweek and will be even more so as a result of the upcoming storms as additional heavy rain moves over areas already waterlogged.
"The heaviest rain on Thursday will fall across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, including portions of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.
This image, taken early Thursday morning, April 29, 2021, shows flood watches (darker greens), flash flood warnings (lighter green) and tornado watches (red) in effect over the south-central United States. (AccuWeather)
Warm and humid air will be pulled northwest from the Gulf of Mexico and meet up with cooler and drier air arriving from the Rockies, according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok.
Cities in South Central states such as Little Rock, Arkansas, and Houston are forecast to have heavy thunderstorms with damaging winds and intense rainfall rates Thursday as cooler air moves into the region.
The greatest threat of heavy rain is forecast for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, where around 1 inch had already fallen, the NWS office in St. Louis said late Wednesday.
"Flash flooding can impact some areas between Texas and Tennessee, receiving multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms," Pastelok said.
With over 3.50 inches of rain so far this month, St. Louis is at 110% of its normal rainfall amount so far in April, putting it at risk for flooding.
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After fierce floods in the Nashville area earlier this year, the city is near 140% of normal rainfall since the start of 2021. The Music City has been running below average this month, but residents of the city should still prepare for possible flooding.
"Some areas could receive another inch or two of rain in a short amount of time, causing ponding of water on some roads along with reduced visibility, slowing travel on major roads such as interstates 71, 70 and 65," Pydynowski said.
"Where downpours repeat in this corridor, the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 10 inches could be achieved," AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said.
AccuWeather forecasters are urging drivers to use caution when traveling due to limited visibility and flooded roadways.
With cities like Louisville, Kentucky, at over 120% of the average rainfall this year, flash flood watches stretch from southern Indiana to Missouri.
"Although Louisville will see heavy rainfall Thursday and is under a flash flood watch through Thursday evening, the rain will be long gone by Saturday evening for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby with sunshine, low humidity and temps in the low 70s expected for the race," Pydynowski said.
South Texas, though, could be in the thick of it Friday night through Saturday night. Cities like Brownsville, Harlingen and Laredo, Texas, are expected to receive heavy rainfall to start the weekend.
"The southern branch of the storm in the East will hold back and slowly move across southeastern Texas and the Gulf Coast with heavy showers and thunderstorms and the chance for more flooding," Pastelok said.
About 67% of Texas is under moderate drought, according to the United States Drought Monitor. Areas of western and southern Texas have been the hardest hit, with large areas of extreme and even exceptional drought being reported.
Harlingen, Texas, located near the Mexico border, has received less than a half an inch of rain so far this month, putting it at a measly 12% of April average, and 25% for the year.
"There could be significant drought easement, but it could swing the other way too," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
Some of the areas that are currently experiencing heavy rainfall and flooding will be in the line of fire for this weekend's storm.
"This storm will hit an area that has received over a foot of rain in April," said Pastelok.
April will finish with monthly rainfall totals of over 1 foot across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi.
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This is not the end of wet weather in these areas, however.
May will start will a chance for more significant rain as a slow-moving storm moves through this region with showers and drenching thunderstorms leading to potential flooding.
This storm is expected to move out of the Rockies, meaning severe weather is possible in the eastern Plains and Mississippi Valley late Tuesday, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Wednesday, according to Pastelok. Rain and thunderstorms with some severe weather are possible next Thursday in the East.
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