Quiet start to the week across the South to benefit some, raise concerns for others

 By Brandon Buckingham, AccuWeather Meteorologist

Updated Apr. 4, 2021 2:58 PM EDT

After a hectic stretch of severe weather to end the month of March across the South, and a chilly start to the month of April, a reprieve of eventful weather is in store through the first half of the upcoming week.

Rainfall totals across the South over the month of March was a case of feast or famine with some locales far exceeding monthly averages and others struggling to pick up any meaningful precipitation.

Both Huntsville and Birmingham, Alabama, far exceeded monthly rainfall averages courtesy of multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity over the past month. The cities tallied up 11.32 inches and 9.54 inches, respectively over the month of March. Farther north, a majority of Tennessee also experienced well above-average rainfall during the month of March as well. Tallying up 12.28 inches of rainfall, Nashville experienced its second wettest March on record, just 0.08 of an inch shy of its all-time wettest March.

"Although it has not rained since March 31 across the region, parts of the Tennessee River are still above flood stage, and will remain there through much of this week. Many Lower Mississippi River tributaries to the east flooded due to the excessive rain," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll stated. "That excess water has caused the Mississippi River to remain well above flood stage from around Cape Girardeau, Missouri to just south of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Some places along the Mississippi River are expected to remain above flood stage through at least the next 7-14 days," Doll added.

On the flip side, many southeastern locales featured well below-average rainfall. Tallahassee and Orlando both recorded less than half of their monthly average rain.

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Through midweek, the upcoming weather pattern is expected to be dominated by an expansive area of high pressure across a majority of the South. This will aid in alleviating flood concerns in areas that experienced round after round of heavy rainfall in March, but will also increase drought and wildfire concerns in areas that have been rather parched as of late.

Along with the largely dry conditions through midweek, moderating temperatures will also erase any additional frost or freeze concerns, proving beneficial for farmers and those looking to spend some time out in the garden.

With a majority of the local foliage in bloom, or beyond the leaf-out stage across the South, the upcoming dry and settled stretch of weather can still prove to be problematic for some. Pollen from trees and other flowering plants may be seen accumulating on cars and other outdoor surfaces over the next few days, proving to be troublesome for those who struggle with seasonal allergies. For the latest information on the Spring pollen and allergy forecast, click here.

As mentioned earlier, a largely dry and settled weather regime will be in place across the South through early this week courtesy of high pressure remaining anchored over the Southeast. By Tuesday, the dome of high pressure is expected to shift southeastward off the Atlantic Coast, which will begin to bring about changing conditions for some.

The shift of high pressure will result in the beginning of wind flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico, especially along the central and western Gulf Coast. Increasingly humid conditions along with a few pop-up showers will be possible along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston. A washout is not expected by any means in this area, but this will be the first signs of rainfall returning across the South this week.

From midweek onward, the weather pattern is expected to pick up in terms of shower and thunderstorm activity across the South. A storm system that is expected to bring along a chance for severe weather across the center of the nation on Tuesday will continue to slide eastward by midweek.

The chances for feisty thunderstorm activity is expected to return across portions of the South by Wednesday. A majority of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and areas around the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers are expected to experience thunderstorm activity as the storm system slowly marches eastward.

While the forecast continues to be ironed out for late this week, the same storm system is expected to spread wet weather across a majority of the South Thursday, Friday and into next weekend, which will likely end up being the first rainfall of the week in places like Atlanta and a majority of the Southeast.

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