By AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Mar. 31, 2021 2:47 PM EDT
A shift in the weather pattern is expected to bring an abrupt pause to spring in the southeastern United States. AccuWeather meteorologists warn that a wave of cold air is forecast to send temperatures plummeting across the region, jeopardizing records that date back more than 100 years in some areas while also threatening sensitive vegetation with a frost or freeze.
Winterlike weather brought the North Central states a midweek reality check and will soon do the same in the East. Actual temperatures dipped into the single digits and lower teens Fahrenheit over the northern Plains on Wednesday morning.
Low temperatures in the Southeast are expected to fall short of predicted levels in the North Central states, but some areas in the South are likely to be hit with a hard freeze on Thursday and Friday nights, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
"Forecast temperatures will be at levels seldom seen this late in the season in the Southeast," Anderson said.
Low temperatures are projected to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s to end this week from Tennessee to the northern parts of Alabama, central Georgia, the coastal areas of the Carolinas and much of Virginia. Forecasters also expect a freeze to occur in these locations. Farther south, temperatures are forecast to dip into the middle to upper 30s in southern Georgia and northern Florida. The coldest outlying areas in this region may have a frost.
Daily record lows that have stood the test of time since the early 1900s and even the 1800s will be challenged. In Greenville/Spartanburg, South Carolina, Friday's record of 26 was set in 1902. In Memphis, Tennessee, the record for April 2 of 27 dates back to 1881. Lows are forecast to be within a few degrees of these marks for the two cities. Records may be challenged, tied or even broken in dozens of Southern cities late this week and early this weekend.
Meteorologists urge people who have set tender annual flower plants outside or started their gardens to take protective and preventative measures.
"Spring growth is likely a week or two ahead of normal across a large portion of the Southeast because of warm weather throughout March," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said.
"Flowering fruit trees and other sensitive vegetation could be damaged by the cold," Samuhel said. This will not have a big impact on traded commodities like corn and soybeans, which have either not been planted or have not emerged just yet, he added.
Spring blooming occurred earlier than normal across a good portion of the Southeast, according to the National Phenology Network. Northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and central and eastern Tennessee had particularly early blooms, including as much as 20 days earlier than normal.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The last time forecast temperatures have dipped into the middle and upper 30s in Jacksonville, Florida, was during early March.
In Tupelo, Mississippi, temperatures most recently dipped to near 30 degrees during the last week of February. That temperature level was right at the tail end of the brutal blast of cold air that caused tremendous damage to the infrastructure over a broad area of the South Central states. During the depths of the frigid air in Tupelo during mid-February, daytime temperatures did not climb above freezing, and nighttime lows were in the teens in the city.
Temperatures in Atlanta have not dipped to near the freezing mark since the middle of February. Temperatures are projected to drop to near 32 with a freeze in the suburbs Friday morning and to the mid-30s with the potential for a frost in the suburbs Saturday morning.
As cold as the mornings will feel in the Southeast late this week, strong March sunshine will try to help ease the chill during the daytime hours. Still, daytime highs will be 10-20 degrees below average for early April. Highs typically range from the lower 60s in the southern Appalachians to the middle 70s along the upper Gulf coast during the first few days of the month.
Even though cooler air will spill through the Florida Peninsula late this week and into this weekend, temperatures will stop well short of frosty levels. Departures are forecast to be on par with much of the rest of the Southeast states. Highs are forecast to be in the middle to upper 60s in Orlando, Florida, during Friday and Saturday as opposed to the average high near 80.
RELATED:
The air is expected to moderate over the weekend and into next week. Parts of the southern Appalachians and Piedmont areas may start out at frosty levels on Easter Sunday morning. During the afternoon hours on Easter Sunday, highs are forecast to range from the middle 60s over the southern Appalachians to the middle 70s along the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.
Forecasters warn of short-term severe storm, flood threat
During the transition to the chilly weather, the atmosphere will squeeze out more rain and thunderstorms for people in areas that have been pummeled by violent and destructive storms in recent weeks.
While an outbreak of severe weather is not foreseen, some storms could briefly become severe, according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller. These storms could produce strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and hail from the coasts of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the eastern part of the Carolinas into Wednesday night.
The possibility of a couple of isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
"The best chance of severe thunderstorms will be where the atmosphere is able to become warm and humid, such as near the Gulf coast, or where the sun is able to come out, such as along the Atlantic coast," Miller said.
A more widespread concern is for rainfall that can quickly produce areas of flooding from the central Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians and the southern Atlantic coast. Some parts of the Southeast have received two to three times their average rainfall for March, and the ground cannot absorb much more rain in the short term.
A general 1-2 inches of rain that is predicted into Wednesday night would not normally be a concern. However, since the ground is saturated, the higher end of that range as well as the risk of 4-6 inches of rain falling in localized areas can be enough to push small streams out of their banks and lead to new rises on some rivers.
Nashville, Tennessee, was within several hundredths of an inch of breaking its March rainfall record as of Wednesday morning. In March 1975, a record 12.35 inches of rain fell. So far this March, 12.28 inches of rain had fallen as of daybreak Wednesday.
Torrential rainfall this past weekend contributed to flooding along the Cumberland River not seen since 2010, when the river crested at its third-highest level on record of 52.55 feet, according to National Weather Service hydrological data. This past weekend, the Cumberland River at Nashville crested at 40.55 feet. Some rain continued to fall over the Nashville area into Wednesday afternoon.
Promising weather conditions ahead
Favorable weather conditions are on the horizon. Forecasters say it looks like much of the region will be free of rain for nearly a week's time moving forward from Thursday, April 1, to Thursday, April 8.
With near-average temperatures forecast to return later this weekend and above-average temperatures likely much of next week, higher evaporation rates should allow streams and rivers to recede after a few days.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
No comments:
Post a Comment