Chris Dolce
Spring could trend increasingly warmer than average across a large part of the United States, according to the latest three-month outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Temperatures in March are predicted to be above average from the Southwest and Southern Plains eastward to the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Most other areas could see an overall temperature trend for the month that winds up right around what is typical for this time of year.
But this forecast is somewhat uncertain and could trend colder in later updates, especially in parts of the central and western states. That's partially because colder Februaries have historically portended continued cool conditions in March.
"The biggest forecast problem is figuring out when the sudden stratospheric warming impacts will wane in March, but, when they do, we expect a rapid transition to a very warm and dry spring," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.
The sudden stratospheric warming Crawford refers to is what caused a disruption of the polar vortex earlier in January. A delayed response to that disruption might be what has triggered a flip to a much colder February weather pattern in the central U.S., especially when compared to earlier in winter.
Crawford suspects there will be a "rather extreme pattern flip" toward warmer conditions sometime in March, but it's unclear when exactly that might happen. Therefore, the overall forecast for the full month of March might not fully represent this potential cool to mild shift during the month.
The rapid change to more widespread warmth that's forecast to eventually happen in March should result in a very mild April for a large chunk of the nation.
Above average temperatures are forecast to dominate much of the Lower 48, except possibly the Northwest. Temperatures might be the farthest above average in a broad area from the Southwest into the Plains, Midwest and parts of the Deep South.
May is also projected to have widespread warmer than average temperatures, from the Southeast westward into portions of the Midwest, Plains and West.
Multiple factors were cited as reasons for the widespread warmth deeper into spring and possibly summer, especially in the western U.S. This includes ongoing drought in the western half of the U.S., continued dry conditions, lingering effects of La Niña and forecasts from computer model guidance.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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