5 Things to Know About This Arctic Outbreak

 Linda Lam

Published: February 12, 2021

Break out the heavy coats – this imminent arctic blast will likely be memorable for a large area of the Lower 48.

Over the next few days, temperatures will plunge in the Plains and Midwest, and it'll be downright dangerous for those caught unprepared.

(MORE: Arctic Outbreak Forecast)

Here are five things you need to know about this arctic outbreak.

1. Many Areas Will Have Prolonged Frigid Conditions

The bitter cold started in parts of the Plains and Midwest last weekend. Temperatures plummeted below zero in Chicago (minus 7 degrees) and Minneapolis (minus 16) on Sunday.

Low temperatures have remained far below zero for much of the Northern and Central Plains into portions of the Midwest this week.

A reinforcing blast of cold air this weekend will keep the frigid conditions in place in those regions, and temperatures will remain below average through next week. Some moderation is possible late next week, however.

Forecast Morning Lows

2. Arctic Outbreak Will Be More Widespread This Weekend

A strong blast of arctic air will surge southward through the central U.S.

Temperatures will drop across most of the Lower 48 this weekend. Chilly conditions will extend into the Pacific Northwest late this week into the weekend while the Southwest will have near-average temperatures.

The East will also experience colder conditions this weekend, although temperatures will remain above average in much of the Florida Peninsula.

Forecast Highs

3. Numerous Daily Record Cold Temperatures Are in Jeopardy

Temperatures will be 20 to 50 degrees colder than average throughout the Plains and into the Midwest early next week.

Low temperatures will plunge into the single digits as far south as northern Texas, with subzero temperatures expected in the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Dozens of record lows are possible, especially on Monday and Tuesday.

Scores of record cold temperatures are also expected through Tuesday from the Pacific Northwest into the Plains and Midwest.

Possible Daily Record Lows

4. It Will Be Dangerous in Central U.S.

This arctic outbreak will be dangerous in much of the central U.S.

Bitterly cold temperatures combined with wind – known as the wind chill – will make it feel even colder and determines the danger level for anyone outside.

Frostbite and hypothermia become serious concerns in temperatures as low as are expected this weekend. Avoiding exposure outdoors is the best way to avoid those dangers.

If you head outdoors, be sure to dress warmly in layers and to cover as much skin as possible.

Also be sure to bring pets inside, protect your water pipes from freezing and if you are traveling, make sure your car has at least half a tank of gas and a survival kit.

(MORE: What You Need To Do Before It Gets Ridiculously Cold)

5. An Arctic Outbreak, Defined

So what do we mean by "arctic outbreak?" The reference is to where the air is coming from – in this case, it's from the Arctic. This is extremely cold air that moves southward from northern Canada and Alaska.

This arctic outbreak resulted from a late December through early January sudden stratospheric warming event, which occurs when temperatures in the polar region's stratosphere rise dramatically.

The sudden stratospheric warming caused the polar vortex to weaken, which then affected the jet stream pattern. There can be a lag of several weeks between when the polar vortex gets disrupted to when it affects the jet stream and then brings colder weather.

In this case, the change in the jet stream led to a blocking pattern in the upper levels of the atmosphere near Greenland, allowing arctic air to surge southward into the Lower 48.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.