Midwest Weekend Snow May Morph Into Northeast Winter Storm Next Week

 Jonathan Erdman

Published: January 27, 2021

Another round of snow is on the way to the Midwest this weekend and that system may transform into a Northeast snowstorm early next week.

In the heart of winter, the weather pattern has become quite active.

Winter Storm Nathaniel dumped heavy snow in parts of the Midwest and light to moderate snow in the Northeast this week.

The next system in this parade is currently hammering parts of the West and will move into the Plains and Midwest this weekend. This one could have a second chapter as a significant snowstorm in the Northeast Sunday through Tuesday.

This system has been named Winter Storm Orlena by The Weather Channel.

(MORE: Western Storm Could Bring Flooding, Feet of Sierra Snow)

As with most snowfall forecasts, there are uncertainties this far out in time. Here's what we know and don't know yet.

Forecast Timing

Saturday

This system will arrive in the Plains and upper Midwest Saturday and will meet up with cold air to produce snow from the eastern Dakotas southeastward into Indiana and Ohio.

It may bring additional snow to areas previously hardest hit from Winter Storm Nathaniel, but the exact location of the rain-snow line remains uncertain.

Later Saturday, this wintry precipitation should spread eastward into portions of the Appalachians and parts of the mid-Atlantic.

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday

By Sunday, snow will continue from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic states.

There are some timing differences in the computer forecast models, but for now indications are that snow may arrive in southern New England by late Sunday.

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The rain-snow line along the East Coast is uncertain and depends on how cold the air mass is ahead of this system. If the air mass is colder, snow may extend at least initially farther south into Virginia, perhaps into northern North Carolina.

Sunday's Forecast

Northeast Groundhog Storm?

Computer forecast models continue to predict a secondary area of low pressure will form near or off the Northeast coast Monday.

(MAPS: 7-Day Rain, Snow Forecast)

Below is a plot of the average of many ensemble models from the European Center of Medium Range Weather Forecasting's Ensemble Prediction System (EPS; in yellow) and NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS; in teal).

Both of these models indicate low pressure off the coast Tuesday morning, Groundhog Day. The difference in placement you're seeing is a common one between the typically slower EPS and the typically faster GEFS.

Computer Model Forecast Low Pressure Centers

Right now, the chances of a significant Northeast snowstorm are increasing.

But that's not a guarantee, and it doesn't mean the entire Northeast will see heavy snow.

How much snow falls and where it falls depends on the exact track of the low near or off the East Coast and how strong it becomes.

(MORE: Major Northeast Snowstorms Have a Seasonal Peak, and It's Now)

Monday

On Monday, current indications are that snow is possible from parts of the Midwest into the Northeast, although it may remain dry in northern New York and northern New England. A mix of rain and snow may be found closer to the coast.

This snow is likely to last into Monday night, particularly in southern New England.

Monday's Forecast

Tuesday

The best chance of snow continuing into Groundhog Day will be in New England.

It remains uncertain if snow will persist at least part of the day, or will have largely ended farther south, although some lingering snow showers and areas of lake-enhanced snow can't be ruled out in the Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

Check weather.com for updates to this forecast as the details come into focus over the coming days.

Tuesday's Forecast

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.