By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Oct. 28, 2020 1:01 PM
After a brutal blow from Typhoon Molave, many of the hardest-hit communities in the Philippines will have little time to recover as another tropical system sets its sights on the nation.
Early Wednesday morning, local time, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) began to issue advisories on a tropical depression in the Philippine Sea. As of Wednesday evening, local time, this system was well east of the Philippines, churning about 2,000 km (over 1,200 miles) east of Manila.
As this tropical depression tracks westward over the open waters of the Philippine Sea, it will encounter low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures: two main atmospheric ingredients needed for tropical development.
With conditions favorable for development, this system can achieve tropical storm status as early as Thursday, local time, according to AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls.
When this system does strengthen, it will be given the internationally-recognized name Goni by the JMA but will be referred to as Rolly by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
Through the end of the week, this system will continue to strengthen as it churns westward across the Philippine Sea toward the Philippines and will likely achieve severe tropical storm status by the start of the weekend. As it approaches the Philippines, the system will likely reach a strength equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the Atlantic and East Pacific Ocean basins.
"The potential storm can reach typhoon intensity before reaching the Philippines Saturday night or Sunday, local time," Nicholls said.
The impacts from the system that will likely be known as Goni will be felt as early as Friday across portions of the Philippines.
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"Regardless of intensity, flooding rains and gusty winds are expected across the central or northern Philippines Friday night through Sunday, local time," Nicholls said.
Rainfall amounts on the level of 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) will be common across the island groups of Luzon and Visayas while portions of Mindanao can receive 50 to 100 mm (2 to 4 inches). An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 405 mm (16 inches) is forecast across the central and northern Philippines.
Heavy rain from the system will cause flash flooding issues across portions of the northern and central Philippines as well as elevate the risk for mudslides across mountainous terrain. The risk for mudslides will be especially high across portions of the country that were recently soaked by Molave.
While heavy rainfall will likely create issues for residents, damaging wind gusts will be an even greater concern with Goni.
Residents wearing masks to prevent the spread of the coronavirus wade through a flooded road from Typhoon Molave in Pampanga province, northern Philippines on Monday, Oct. 26, 2020. The fast moving typhoon has forced thousands of villagers to flee to safety in provinces. (AP Photo/Aaron Favila)
Forecast to be a dangerous severe tropical storm or even a typhoon at landfall, winds from Goni will certainly pack a serious punch. Dangerous wind gusts on the order of 185 km/h (115 mph) will be likely near where the system makes landfall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 210 km/h (130 mph).
As the system tracks west across the Philippines, widespread wind gusts of 65 to 95 km/h (40 to 60 mph) will cover a large swath of the country. Areas along the track of Goni will more commonly receive 95- to 130-km/h (60- to 80-mph) wind gusts. These strong wind gusts can bring down power lines and cause significant damage to trees and poorly constructed structures. Structures already weakened by the blow from Typhoon Molave will be in peril.
"Goni is expected to follow a path similar to Molave as it crosses the Philippines and may eventually go on to impact Vietnam next week" Nichols said.
Due to the anticipated flooding rainfall and damaging winds, Goni will be a 3 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Tropical Cyclones. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale was developed to help people make better decisions around tropical systems, bringing improvement upon the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by also factoring in flooding rain, storm surge and economic damage and loss.
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Since Oct. 13, three named tropical systems have made landfall over the Philippines. Just five days after Tropical Storm Saudel, known in the Philippines as Pepito, made landfall, Typhoon Molave took aim at the weather-weary nation.
Typhoon Molave, known in the Philippines as Quinta, was the most recent storm to strike the nation and brought disastrous, even deadly impacts for some residents. After it first made landfall on October 25, Molave went on to record a total of five landfalls across the Philippines; the last of which occurred over the province of Oriental Mindoro.
Oriental Mindoro, a province with a thriving agricultural industry, suffered heavy economic losses as a result of Typhoon Molave. Across the province, an estimated 2 billion PHP (41.3 million USD), worth of damage was done to crops as a result of Molave, according to ABS-CBN. Some farmers in the area had 100 percent of their crops destroyed by Molave. These same areas will likely experience the wrath of Goni over the weekend.
At least four deaths in the Philippines have been blamed on Typhoon Molave, according to ABS-CBN.
To add insult to injury, even more tropical trouble may be on the way for the Philippines after Goni exits the area at the end of the weekend.
Following the system set to become Goni, another system may eye the Philippines in early November. AccuWeather forecasters are closely monitoring another area of disturbed weather near Micronesia for development late this week.
"This system can strengthen into Tropical Storm Atsani by the time it passes south and east of Guam this weekend or early next week," Nicholls said. "Potential Atsani can then impact the northern Philippines late next week."
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