By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Oct. 2, 2020 12:22 PM
The 24th tropical storm of the 2020 Atlantic tropical season has emerged and Gamma is set to deliver another flooding threat to parts of Mexico.
A stalled front, stretching from South Florida to the Bay of Campeche, brought tremendous flooding across parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico, with enough rain to flood the streets in Tabasco.
A tropical low strengthened into Tropical Depression 25 midday on Friday, before undergoing even more strengthening Friday afternoon and becoming Tropical Storm Gamma.
Tropical Storm Gamma is seen nearing the Yucatan Peninsula early Saturday morning, Oct. 3, 2020. (CIRA/RAMMB)
As of 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, Gamma had sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and was moving northwestward at 9 mph (15 km/h).
Gamma is forecast to continue moving northwestward towards the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, with landfall likely in the afternoon near the city of Tulum.
AccuWeather is projecting the system to peak as a strong tropical storm before making landfall on the northeastern Yucatan coast Saturday afternoon. However, strengthening could resume and extend beyond tropical storm strength as the system gets into the southern Gulf of Mexico days later.
Gamma is forecast to slowly meander over the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend, allowing for rounds of rain to deluge the same regions and the tropical storm sweeps damaging winds across the Yucatan Channel.
While some of the strongest wind gusts from Gamma may actually occur over the water, widespread gusts of 40-60 mph (65-96 km/h) are expected along the shores of western Cuba and northern Yucatan Peninsula. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 65 mph (105 km/h) is expected on land, and is most likely near or just to the east of where Gamma makes landfall.
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Swimmers should stay out of the water and boaters should consider keeping their vessels in port over the next several days due to building seas and surf. Increasing gusty winds in thunderstorms can lead to property damage and power outages.
Meanwhile, Gamma's rain is likely to be the most widespread impact across the Yucatan Peninsula.
Residents across the Yucatan Peninsula can expect widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) through early week, elevating the risk of flash flooding. Even more rainfall is possible if the tropical system stalls on the northwestern side of the Yucatan after Monday.
It is not out of the question that an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could be observed in some locations on the Yucatan Peninsula.
Early next week, a few scenarios are still possible as to where Gamma could track once it pulls away from the northern Yucatan coast.
"The most likely scenario, at this time, is for Gamma to drift westward early next week and then southwest, ending up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
This will help the heavy rainfall to expand into the states bordering the Bay of Campeche, including Campeche, Tabasco, Chiapas and Veracruz, through the middle of next week.
Another option, should the high pressure over the central and eastern United States not be enough to steer Gamma to the southwest, is for Gamma to continue to slowly move westward through next week across the Gulf of Mexico.
In this scenario, rain could be less in southern Mexico, and instead spread more rain to northeastern Mexico and perhaps even southern Texas. A storm stalled in the Gulf of Mexico also has the potential to disrupt natural gas and oil production in the western Gulf of Mexico for several days.
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In addition to Gamma, there is a second disturbance that AccuWeather meteorologists are keeping a close eye on. This second disturbance will not develop right away -- and may not develop at all.
Even without another organized tropical feature, the next tropical wave will bring another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the northwestern Caribbean Sea that have already been hit so hard. It will not take a lot of additional rain for flooding to once again be a concern for parts of the Yucatan next week.
If this second system were also able to strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be given the name Delta and be only the second Tropical Storm Delta in the history of the Atlantic Basin, following the Delta from the notorious Atlantic Tropical Season of 2005.
The formation of Gamma eclipses the 24th storm on the record books, beating out Beta from Oct. 27, 2005. The majority of the former early formation records were set during the notorious 2005 hurricane season. There was an initially unclassified storm during the 2005 season, which bumped the named storms and their numbers farther down the list that year.
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