Epsilon Forecast to Pass East of Bermuda as a Hurricane Late This Week

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: October 20, 2020

The latest Atlantic named storm, Epsilon, is expected to intensify in the central Atlantic Ocean before tracking east of Bermuda late this week. While not a U.S. threat, it will help generate high surf along the East Coast later this week.

Epsilon became the 26th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season late Monday morning, beating the previous record earliest 26th storm of the 2005 hurricane season - Nov. 22, 2005 - by over a month, according to Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University tropical scientist.

Epsilon is centered more than 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda and is moving northwest.

Epsilon's wind field is large in size with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 345 miles from its circulation center, as of late Tuesday afternoon.

Current Wind Field and Satellite

Epsilon will become the Atlantic's 10th hurricane of the season, joining only four other hurricane seasons since the mid-1960s that have generated 10 or more hurricanes by October 21, according to Klotzbach.

Epsilon will gradually turn northward starting Thursday.

Current forecast trends suggest this northward turn should occur soon enough to keep Epsilon's center sufficiently east to spare Bermuda the strongest impacts from winds, rain and surge as it makes its closest approach Thursday night or early Friday.

However, Epsilon's large size could allow bands of heavy rain and gusty winds to reach Bermuda, especially if its center moves on the left edge of the forecast path shown below.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda. Tropical-storm-force winds could arrive there as soon as Thursday.

Epsilon will then curl sharply northeast and speed up this weekend as it becomes caught up in the jet stream over the North Atlantic.

Its remnant energy and moisture could end up reaching Ireland and the United Kingdom next Tuesday, a common occurrence of tropical cyclones "recurving" from the tropics into higher latitudes.

Forecast Path and Intensity

This system is not a threat to the U.S. East Coast.

However, the pressure difference between strong high pressure over the North Atlantic Ocean and Epsilon will generate swells that will push toward parts of the East Coast, leading to high surf and rip currents later this week.

This rough surf will also affect the Bahamas, and north-facing coasts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands.

Parts of the U.S. East Coast are already seeing coastal flooding and rip currents early this week. That is being caused by a combination of king tides and onshore winds from an area of high pressure.

(MORE: Hurricane Season is Far From Over)

We've now blown through 26 storms this season, requiring the use of the Greek alphabet for additional named storms for only the second time.

The record 2005 Atlantic hurricane season used up the first six letters of the Greek alphabet, but it took until the end of December for "Zeta" to form that year.

Greek names used in 2020 Atlantic hurricane season through Epsilon. Names grayed out were not used in the record 2005 Atlantic hurricane season.

One unnamed subtropical storm was found in post-analysis of the 2005 season, thus bringing that season's record total to 28 storms.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.