Tropical Depression Thirteen Could Approach Florida, Bahamas Next Week

 weather.com meteorologists

Published: August 20,2020

Tropical Depression Thirteen is tracking through the Atlantic and could affect the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico with rain and gusty winds by this weekend. This system might approach Florida and the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. However, its forecast intensity and track at that time are highly uncertain.

Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico Forecast

Tropical Depression Thirteen is likely to move rather quickly to the west-northwest over the next few days on the southern periphery of a high-pressure system to its north.

Rainfall and gusty winds from this system could reach parts of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by later Friday into Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas, but that will depend on how much this system intensifies.

Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the northern Leeward Islands.

Current Watches and Warnings

Locally heavy rainfall, regardless of the system's strength, is possible, which could trigger flash flooding. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are currently expected in the northern Leeward Islands and in Puerto Rico. Late last month, what eventually became Isaias dumped 6 to 12 inches of rain in parts of Puerto Rico, leading to significant flash flooding.

Uncertain Forecast Ahead For the U.S.

The National Hurricane Center forecast shows this system approaching Florida and the Gulf of Mexico as a strong tropical storm by early next week. However, this forecast is not as straightforward as it might seem and you can expect changes over the next several days.

Warm sea-surface temperatures and low to moderate wind shear are factors that favor the steady strengthening of this system through the weekend.

However, one major hindrance that could batter the future tropical storm is possible land interaction with the higher terrain of Hispaniola and/or Cuba. There is also the possibility that dry air could be pulled into this system, which would be another hindrance to strengthening.

Current Information

Those conflicting forecast factors mean there is a wide range of outcomes that remain possible.

Here are some, but not all, of the scenarios being depicted in various computer model forecast guidance.

1. This system approaches Florida or the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm or even a hurricane.

2. Dry air and/or land interaction cause this system to dissipate prior to reaching Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

3. The system remains weak or even dissipates over the next several days, but then reorganizes and strengthens as it approaches Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

The bottom line is it's too early to know what, if any, impacts this system might bring to other parts of the Caribbean or mainland United States. If this system does reach the mainland United States, it would not be until early next week, at the soonest.

All interests along the Gulf Coast and Southeast coast, including Florida, should monitor the forecast closely. Check weather.com for updates.

Active Season Already in 2020

It has been an active year already in the Atlantic and tropical activity usually increases by late August as oceanic and atmospheric conditions become most favorable for hurricane development.

(MORE: Why the Atlantic Hurricane Season Is About to Shift Into High Gear)

The Atlantic Basin has seen 11 named storms already this year. Tropical Storms Josephine and Kyle became the earliest tenth and 11th named storms on record in the Atlantic Basin, last week.

The next name on the list is Laura.

2020 Atlantic hurricane season names list. Those names already used are highlighted in yellow.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.