Monsoon rains to impact India from coast to coast into next week

 By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Aug. 21, 2020 11:51 AM

Heavy rain is forecast for both the east and west coasts of India into early next week, threatening more flooding for communities.

As showers and thunderstorms spread across much of India and southeastern Asia this weekend into early next week, two separate lows will target the coasts of India with widespread heavy rainfall.

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One such low will swirl in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal this weekend through early next week.

"This monsoon low is forecast to stay rather stationary in the northern part of the bay, bringing round after round of heavy, tropical rainfall to parts of eastern India, Bangladesh and western Myanmar," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Tony Zartman.

Despite the presences of tropical moisture within this low, it is not expected to strengthen into a more organized tropical system at this time.

Rainfall amounts into Tuesday are likely to reach 50-100 mm (2-4 inches), with isolated rainfall amounts as high as 200 mm (8 inches). The highest rainfall totals will be in areas that get hit with heavy downpours repetitively into next week.

Without much movement from the low, the same areas could be hit with downpours several days in a row, making flash flooding a large concern into early next week, including in Odisha, Jharhand, West Bengal and through Bangladesh.

Parts of Bangladesh have already had widespread flooding issues so far this monsoon season, including one wave of moisture that forced 200,000 people to evacuate.

Villagers row country boats with their luggage to move to safer areas through floodwaters in Morigaon district of Assam, India, Friday, June 26, 2020. Following incessant rainfall, the Brahmaputra river and its tributaries continued to rise flooding several districts in the state. (AP Photo/Anupam Nath)

Farther west, a low will travel across northwestern India, bringing a second swath of heavy rainfall.

"Compared to the low in the Bay of Bengal, this second low will slowly move westward. Despite not being stationary, this western low will have a better chance of bringing higher rainfall totals," Zartman said.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) are expected from across northwestern India to southern and southeastern Pakistan. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 400 mm (16 inches) is possible by Tuesday afternoon.

The majority of the rain any city gets will be in a 24-48-hour window, rather than being spread out over several days. This much rain in a short time will increase the chances for flash flooding and mudslides.

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Rainfall into Saturday night will be mainly across Madhya Pradesh and southern Rajasthan.

From Sunday into Monday, the heaviest rain is expected to fall across Gujarat and southern Rajasthan while rainfall across Madhya Pradeh lessens.

Downpours will continue to slowly move into southeast Pakistan through Tuesday, including Karachi.

Across all of India and southern Pakistan, travel will be significantly disrupted during these downpours. Cities like Indore, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Kolkata are some major cities that could notice these impacts.

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