By AccuWeather meteorologist
Published Aug. 21, 2020 12:22 PM
Tropical Storm Marco has entered the Gulf of Mexico, where forecasters say strengthening to a hurricane is possible before a landfall along the Louisiana coast early this week.
Tropical Depression 14 strengthened to Tropical Storm Marco over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean on Friday night. As of 7 a.m. EDT Sunday, Marco was just shy of Category 1 hurricane strength with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph.
Forecasters warn that residents along the central Gulf Coast of the U.S. should begin making preparations now.
On Saturday, Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announced the state could begin seeing the effects of Tropical Storm Marco as early as Sunday, with Tropical Storm Laura following closely behind. The governor declared a state of emergency on Saturday ahead of Laura and Marco's unwelcomed arrival.
"We are in unprecedented times," Reeves said. "We are dealing with not only two potential storms in the next few hours, we are also dealing with COVID-19."
The governor and other state officials urged residents to prepare ahead of the storms and advised people to find places to evacuate other than public shelters.
Louisiana Gov. John Edwards tweeted late Thursday that officials are monitoring Marco and Laura and urged residents to gather a plan and consider adding items to guard against the coronavirus pandemic to storm kits. "I want to urge everyone to prepare for whatever may come and to get a game plan," Edwards said.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the coast of Louisiana from Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River.
Marco became the tenth storm in 2020 to go down in the record books for the basin. Marco beat Hurricane Maria from the 2005 season, and that storm wasn't given the name Maria until Sept. 2. This was the second Atlantic record set late this week, as Laura claimed the title for the earliest L-named storm on record when it was developed at 9:00 a.m. EDT Friday. Laura was located just east of the northern Leeward Islands when it was named.
Heavy rain and gusty winds will wind down across northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba as Marco heads north-northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico into Monday.
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As the system strengthens in the Gulf, heavier rainfall will spread northward into the Gulf Coast states, beginning as early as Monday morning.
A swath of 4-8 inches and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches of rain is anticipated from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana. This heavy rainfall will occur regardless of the strength of Marco as it makes landfall.
Damaging winds are also expected, especially in exposed windward locations like coastal areas around and north of the center of the storm. These areas are most likely to be impacted by destructive onshore winds. Should the storm remain stronger, these areas could also experience coastal flooding.
AccuWeather meteorologists expect landfall to occur along the Louisiana coast late Monday.
At this point, the greatest impacts from rain, wind and storm surge flooding are expected to be near and just east of the landfall point of Marco, which puts southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, and southern Mississippi at greatest risk. Isolated tornadoes can also occur in these areas.
With these anticipated impacts from rain and wind, Marco will be a one for the U.S. on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale™ for Hurricanes, a six-point scale from less than one to 5 that rates tropical systems based on impacts.
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards requested a Federal Emergency Declaration on Saturday in preparation of Marco, as well as Laura.
"This is unlike anything we have seen, with two hurricanes expected to impact our state nearly back to back," he said. "This may mean that people will have to shelter in place for more than 72 hours and that there may not be time to do things like restore lost power between the two storms."
Oil and gas rigs are most concentrated in the central and western two-thirds of the Gulf of Mexico, with refineries in the Houston and Galveston area and around New Orleans. "Two potential [Gulf of Mexico] storms could certainly keep the rigs offline for a few days," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dale Mohler.
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And storm after storm could keep on coming as tropical waves continue to emerge off the coast of Africa, according to Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno. The heart of the 2020 hurricane season, which is just getting underway, is expected to be extremely active. AccuWeather meteorologists upped their forecast for the number of tropical storms in late July, with up to 24 now predicted and up to 11 hurricanes projected for the season.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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