As hurricane season kicks into high gear and storms bear down on Texas and Hawaii this weekend, those in the path could be faced with a tough decision: Go to a shelter and risk the chance of being exposed to coronavirus, or stay home and take their chances that the weather will spare them.
“We do completely understand that concern which is why we’re doing everything we can to mitigate any sort of risk," American Red Cross spokesperson Greta Gustafson told weather.com in an interview Thursday. “When you come to a shelter what you’re first going to see is a volunteer who is standing outside, who's taking temperatures and making sure to do that quick health screening, and making sure that everyone has a mask before they even enter a shelter.”
In Hawaii, where Hurricane Douglas is likely to strike on Sunday, officials are warning residents that shelter space will be limited due to the need for social distancing. For those that are open, temperature checks and face coverings will be the norm.
The American Meteorological Society and several state agencies have issued recommendations advising people who are told to evacuate that they will be safer in shelters than in severe weather. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued guidelines to help evacuees stay safe in shelters. The tips advise people to bring their own hand sanitizer and face coverings, maintain social distancing and avoid touching high-contact surfaces such as doorknobs.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency recently released operational guidance for state and local governments during the 2020 hurricane season.
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But in many major hurricane-prone areas, officials worry that people won't heed evacuation warnings.
"COVID adds another layer ... so we have a fear that people will hesitate or not evacuate because they’re more afraid of COVID than they are of a major hurricane," Collin Arnold, director of homeland security and emergency preparedness in New Orleans, told weather.com in a recent interview. "You have to realize that if a mandatory evacuation of a major American city is called it's because the threat and magnitude of that major hurricane is greater than the spread of the pandemic. That’s kind of where we’re at.”
Weather experts, health officials and emergency management agencies who have so far weighed in on the topic recommend that those who are told to evacuate for any type of severe weather do so, regardless of the pandemic.
"There’s not a whole hell of a lot of choices," Miami-Dade Director of Emergency Management Frank Rollason told weather.com. "As my daddy would say, you gotta ride the horse you got, and that’s what we’re going to do."
"We will be here and we will address it and we will have a plan and we will do our best to execute those plans as we always do. We’re just going to have to adapt," Rollason added. "We’re going to make plans for a contingency that we didn’t have to think about last year."
Or, really, ever.
Mark Bowen, emergency management director in Bay County, Florida, where Hurricane Michael made landfall in 2018, called planning for severe weather in the face of coronavirus "quite a new paradigm."
This hurricane season is expected to be more active than normal, and Tropical Storm Arthur kicked it off about two weeks early when it formed on May 17. Seven other named storms have followed in the Atlantic since. While none of them caused any major impacts, each is an unsettling reminder that hurricane season and coronavirus are a complicated mix that requires completely new ways of doing things.
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Officials in Florida, for example, are considering using ride-sharing services rather than buses to transport people who need transportation out of evacuated areas. They also are looking at using hotels as shelters.
In Charleston, South Carolina, neighboring counties might be called upon to open their shelters. Charleston County Emergency Mangement Director Jason Patno said his community has 75% fewer shelters than it did last year because of the need to social distance. All of the county's 412,000 residents live in some level of evacuation zone.
“If you have the means and the ability to evacuate, then you need to do so," Patno told weather.com "We’ve always stated that’s the only way we can ensure your safety. But in this case we have so few shelter spaces that we actually need to reserve those for our residents that just do not have the means or ability to evacuate outside of the threat zone.”
Emergency management specialists are used to preparing for the worst. But the coronavirus pandemic, they say, is like the whole country being hit by a Category 5 hurricane at the same time. Resources are already spread thin, and neighboring counties and states may not be able to lend a hand like they normally would.
People who evacuated ahead of Hurricane Irma crowd around a Red Cross volunteer at a shelter at an elementary school in Tampa, Florida, on Sept. 9, 2017."If you got an Andrew hit that comes through a very populated area, we’re going to be stressed out, we’re going to be beyond our capability," Rollason said, referencing Hurricane Andrew, which devastated parts of South Florida in 1992.
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The Red Cross issued new policies for its shelters in the wake of coronavirus, and emergency managers in parts of the country where severe weather like flooding and tornadoes have already hit this spring have had no choice but to deal with issue. A few decided not to open shelters. Others opened more shelters so the facilities would be less crowded. Many handed out face masks or took the temperatures of people as they entered.
But those who deal with hurricanes face a much broader scale of potential disaster.
"Most government entities use schools … you can only get so many people in those schools," Steven Still, director of emergency management in New Hanover County, North Carolina, told weather.com.
Nearly 7 million people in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina were told to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Irma in 2017. Scores of others made the decision to leave on their own. Many went to hotels or to stay with family and friends, options that officials say are good choices if social distancing can be maintained.
Counties generally draw up severe weather plans based on the number of people who would need shelter in a worst-case scenario.
In Miami-Dade, for example, the numbers are calculated to give each person in a shelter 20 square feet of "personal space." But Rollason said that doesn't necessarily allow for six feet between them, as mandated by social distancing guidelines. So the county is looking at options to have more shelters available.
People wait for breakfast as they and others seek safety in a shelter as Hurricane Michael approaches on Oct. 10, 2018, in Panama City, Florida. Officials worry about managing social distancing in shelters in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic."We will adapt to what we have to adapt to," he said. "We jam all the people in, we ride out the hurricane, we send them home, we separate."
In smaller New Hanover County, Still said the more pressing concern is the resiliency of employees who are already staffing emergency operations centers 24/7 in response to the coronavirus.
"Capacity's not an issue, it's longevity … that's certainly a concern for the health and mental well-being of our staff," he said.
Still and others also pointed out that no one can predict how the coronavirus pandemic will play out over the rest of the summer and into the early fall, which is the peak of hurricane season. Officials will have to adjust as they go.
Rollason asked his daughter, who has a young son, if she would evacuate in the event of a hurricane, even later in the season.
"She said 'You’re crazy, I’m not going to any shelter. I’m not going to (get) crammed in. People are still going to be sick,'" Rollason said.
"We’re preaching every day stay away, stay away, and now we’re going to tell them, 'Look, you’ve got to come to this place.'"
Bowen said the bottom line for those in the path of a hurricane remains the same: "If they’re told to evacuate, they need to heed that."
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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