Summer may end on a hot note in the Northeast and parts of the Four Corners region, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
Temperatures will be the greatest above average in Maine, far northern New Hampshire and northeastern Vermont in August. The Northeast, much of the mid-Atlantic, as well as parts of the Four Corners region, will experience a warmer than average end to summer.
Meanwhile, temperatures will trend near or slightly below average from eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota southeastward into Mississippi and much of Alabama.
Otherwise most of the West, Great Lakes and Southeast can expect temperatures in August to be near or slightly above average.
August Temperature Outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.What Factors Are Driving the Forecast?
Unusual warmth has persisted from the Southwest into the Plains and Northeast through June and July. However, recent changes may result in a slightly cooler August in parts of the country.
A pattern change across the contiguous U.S. has emerged as July comes to a close and will persist into the beginning of August. Specifically, a break in the subtropical ridge of high pressure will allow a couple of cold fronts to push a bit farther south. A southward dip in the jet stream, along with rain, thunderstorms and clouds will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler than usual for this time of year in part of the Plains, Midwest and South.
"Given the much cooler than expected start to the month across the central U.S., we've made sizable cooler changes to our August forecast that have resulted in a pattern more like August 2012," said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.
In addition, recent heavier rainfall in parts of the Northern and Central Plains may be influencing the slightly cooler trend in portions of the central U.S., as soil moisture remains above average there.
Early August PatternThe pattern that will start August is not expected to last. A reversal to conditions that have dominated this summer is likely to emerge for the second half of the month.
This suggests that a return to hotter than average temperatures is anticipated for much of the contiguous United States as meteorological summer comes to an end.
Average August Temperatures
Average temperatures begin to cool slightly for parts of the country in August.
That may not be the case in the Northeast, where a warmer than average August is anticipated. This may also be the case in parts of the Four Corners region where above average temperatures are expected.
Milder conditions may prevail in parts of the central U.S., where temperatures may trend near or slightly below average. Highs in the 70s and 80s are possible, instead of the 80s and 90s typically expected at this time of year.
Average Highs in AugustAverage low temperatures remain mild to warm for much of the U.S. in August.
Warmer than average lows could lead to some uncomfortable nights in the Northeast and Southwest.
Much of the West is expected to experience temperatures near or slightly above average, which may mean widespread average lows in the 50s. Near-average or slightly warmer than average temperatures in the Great Lakes and Southeast in August may translate to lows in the 60s or 70s.
Parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and South that could trend slightly cooler than average may find lows in the 50s and 60s at times in August.
Average Lows in AugustThe Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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