Sunday, June 28, 2020

Window for tropical development closing for the East Pacific?

Updated Jun. 28, 2020 6:44 AM









The East Pacific tropical basin sprung to life this past week as multiple areas of tropical low pressure developed across the region, including one that became Tropical Storm Boris. However, that uptick in activity could be about to change, say AccuWeather meteorologists who have been closely examining the tropics.

After becoming a tropical storm briefly late in the day on Thursday, Boris has since weakened to a post-tropical low pressure area well to the southeast of Hawaii.

Behind Boris, there is one other area that AccuWeather forecasters are monitoring in the East Pacific Basin.

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A feature that emerged off the coast of Central America late this past week has a small window for development off the southwestern coast of Mexico.

The cluster of showers and thunderstorms remained disorganized on Saturday as it moved to the northwest, generally paralleling the coast of Mexico.

The disturbance is running out of time to develop tropically, however, as it will move into an area of drier air, increased wind shear and cooler water early this week.

"Even if the system were to develop, it would do so several hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico and therefore be no threat to land," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

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The next system to strengthen into a tropical storm with winds of 39 mph (62 km/h) in the East Pacific Basin would be given the name Cristina.

At the same time, meteorologists have been monitoring Saharan dust pushing through the Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico, which is helping to stifle widespread tropical development in the Atlantic Basin. Dolly formed outside of the large plume of dust this past week, more than 300 miles southeast of Nova Scotia, and became the second earliest fourth-named storm in recorded history in the Atlantic.

Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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