Updated jun.
8, 2020 4:43 PM
The West Pacific Basin is once again heating up as a tropical low could strengthen throughout the week. The budding tropical system is forecast to spread impacts to the Philippines by the week's end.
AccuWeather forecasters will be monitoring a disturbance drifting through the Philippine Sea toward the Philippines this week.
Even though the system will be traveling over warm water, one ingredient needed in the development of tropical systems, some wind shear, or increasing wind speeds with altitude, in the area will limit how quickly this low becomes better organized.
"Any rapid strengthening of this low pressure area is unlikely as the tropical low pressure moves to the northwest through Tuesday," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Houk said.
However, there is potential for this system to gradually strengthen into a depression or perhaps a tropical storm through the second half of the week, according to Houk.
The disturbance is expected to produce tropical downpours across the northern Philippines late this week whether or not it strengthens enough to be named.
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"An increase in tropical moisture will enhance showers and thunderstorms across eastern Visayas and Luzon starting on Wednesday," stated Houk.
"The threat for flooding will continue across Luzon through at least Friday where 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) of rain will be possible," Houk added.
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Not only will this amount of rainfall threaten the region with flooding, the risk for mudslides will also increase into the weekend.
The threat for strong wind gusts will depend on how much the system is able to strengthen before tracking across the islands, the stronger the storm the more dangerous the winds will become. At this time, widespread damaging winds are not expected.
The strengthening of this system will be halted as it tracks across the rugged terrain of the northern Philippines, but forecasters will be closely monitoring the storm into the weekend.
"If the low fails to become a storm before reaching the Philippines, there is still potential for it to reach tropical storm intensity over the South China Sea over the weekend," said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
Residents wade along a flooded village caused by typhoon Vongfong as it passed by Sorsogon province, eastern Philippines on Friday, May 15, 2020. More than 150,000 people were riding out a weakening typhoon in emergency shelters in the Philippines on Friday after a mass evacuation that was complicated and slowed by the coronavirus. (AP Photo/Melchor Hilotin)
Interests along the southern shore of China should monitor this feature for potential impacts into the beginning of next week.
The next tropical cyclone name from the Japan Meteorological Agency is Nuri. The name Butchoy would be used by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration for the next tropical cyclone to develop near the islands.
The last tropical cyclone to develop in the West Pacific Basin was Typhoon Vongfong, also known as Ambo in the Philippines. The typhoon forced 50,000 people from their homes after causing devastating flooding and widespread power outages across the northern Philippines during the middle of May.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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