Updated jun.
7, 2020 10:04 PM
Cristobal, the system that formed from a piece of what was Tropical Storm Amanda, is sure making a name for itself. Amanda was the first named storm of the Pacific Basin hurricane season, and it struck Central America, resulting in at least 26 deaths and forcing at least 8,000 people to be evacuated in El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala.
In a rare move, what was left of the storm then crossed over land and developed into Tropical Storm Cristobal – the earliest third named tropical storm system on record in the Atlantic Basin – thanks to a weather phenomenon known as the Central American Gyre (CAG).
Records could be broken as Cristobal moves into the Midwest by midweek. The Atlantic National Hurricane Center forecast has it tracking further west across Wisconsin than any other post-tropical system on record since the mid-1800s.
Cristobal weakened to a tropical depression Thursday as it moved over Guatemala, but it strengthened back to a tropical storm Friday and made landfall in Louisiana on Sunday evening at 5 p.m. CDT.
With Cristobal still on the move, here are six things we already know about the storm.
1. It’s lopsided... but not like the Leaning Tower of Pisa exactly.
“Lopsided just means that there is a higher wind area on one side of the storm than the other,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel.
“Here, we are forecasting winds 150 miles to the east of the center, but just 60 to 90 miles on the west side of the center. Usually, tropical storms will be symmetrical, but this one is probably more lopsided than normal," Samuhel said, noting that before Cristobal weakened into a depression, it had "a large circulation." He added, "Having tropical-storm-force winds occurring 150 miles from the center is pretty significant.”
Tropical Storm Cristobal is seen swirling over the Gulf of Mexico early Sunday morning, June 7, 2020. The brighter colors indicate cloud tops and areas of rain and thunderstorms. Most of Cristobal's rainfall is skewed to the north and east of the center of circulation, making it a "lopsided" storm. (CIRA/RAMMB)
2. Cristobal could deliver a blow to the oil and gas industry.
AccuWeather forecasters are predicting the storm will move over the heart of the offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, likely causing a disruption in operations. There can be a 50-70 percent shutdown of both oil and gas rigs for at least a short period. However, it is likely some of the rigs have already been shut down due to oversupply concerns. The total output of rigs is about three percent of U.S. production for natural gas and 17 percent of U.S. production for oil, according to the Energy Information Agency.
Heavy rainfall and flooding concerns could also impact onshore refineries along and near the western Gulf Coast, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
3. Cristobal figures to have less of a negative impact on crops in the U.S. than the oil and gas industries.
The main rice-growing area in the U.S. exists in the Mississippi Delta crop belt, where about 65 percent of the total U.S. rice crop is grown. Some 40 percent of the U.S. crop is grown in Arkansas alone.
AccuWeather forecasters expect Cristobal to bring mostly beneficial rain to the Mississippi Delta croplands of 2 to 4 inches – locally 6 inches – especially to southern parts of the delta. It could also bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to the heart of the Midwest Corn Belt, which also would be beneficial.
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4. Cristobal is a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes categorizes hurricanes and tropical storms on a six-point scale and is based on a variety of diverse, contributing factors, such as flooding rain, high winds and storm surge as well as the total economic impact from the storm, rather than simply wind, which is the basis of the Saffir-Simpson scale. It uses a 1 to 5 rating, but also adds an additional rating of "Less than 1."
Cristobal was also a 1 in Mexico, and Louisiana braced for the specific impacts covered by the Accuweather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes. "We are confident that there will be widespread, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding," Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said in a press release.
By Sunday night, Cristobal made landfall in southeast Louisiana, bringing with it 50 mph winds and heavy downpours that threaten serious flooding problems.
5. If Cristobal becomes a hurricane, it could become the earliest hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. on record going back to 1851.
According to Colorado State University Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach, the current record-holder is Alma, which made landfall near Apalachee Bay on the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle, as a Category 2 hurricane on June 9, 1966.
6. Why the name change from Amanda to Cristobal?
According to the National Hurricane Center, if a system remains a tropical cyclone during its entire journey across Central America, then it keeps its original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates and is no longer a trackable feature at the surface will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name, assuming it becomes a tropical storm once again in its new basin, as Cristobal did.
OK, so maybe it’s not as compelling a story as Anakin Skywalker becoming Darth Vader.
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