Updated May. 3, 2020 9:45 AM
The potential for tropical development in the Indian Ocean during later this week marks the beginning of an increase in tropical activity that usually precedes the arrival of India's southwest monsoon.
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking a broad area of low pressure over western Indonesia and Malaysia that will drift west over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea through this week. During that time, the low will be over warm water and in an area of low wind shear, conditions that are conducive for tropical development.
As the low moves away from larger land masses, friction will decrease and the potential for development will increase.
"There remains some question on the eventual strength of this system, but it seems possible that it will become a deep depression or a cyclonic storm by late this week or early next week," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Douty added that it would be equivalent to a tropical depression or tropical storm in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins.
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Regardless of the storm's strength, it is forecast to bring tropical downpours to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands through early this week, which will increase the risk of flash flooding and mudslides.
There is uncertainty about the track of the storm during the middle and end of the week as the storm moves west of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
"Areas across southern India have the greatest chance at seeing impacts from this by the later part of this week into early next week." warned Douty.
The exact track of this feature will also determine how much it is able to strengthen throughout the week.
It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Indian Sea during the beginning of May.
"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form anytime of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," said AccuWeather Lead International Forecaster Jason Nicholls.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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