Heavy rain to threaten flooding in south-central US next week

By Ryan Adamson, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May. 23, 2020 6:17 AM

A prolonged period of heavy rainfall will be likely in parts of the South Central states beginning on Memorial Day and continuing through much of next week, heightening the risk of flash flooding.

The rainy pattern will come courtesy of a system high in the atmosphere that will become cut off from the main flow of the jet stream. When this happens, unsettled weather can linger for several days in the same general location.

Another reason for the slow movement of this system will be a large area of high pressure located over the mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states. The high pressure will block the pattern from making much eastward progress.

While it will not rain constantly next week, rain can fall at almost any time in the region. Some cities that could endure several rounds of rain include Dallas and Houston, Texas; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Little Rock, Arkansas.

"The stalled storm will tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, which will add to the intensity of rainfall rates across the region and increase the potential for flash flooding," said AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff. "Training thunderstorms, or storms that repeat over the same areas and increase the likelihood of flooding, will also be of concern in this type of pattern."

Anyone traveling across the region will need to slow down and be aware of any flooded roadways.

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"Motorists are reminded to never attempt to drive through floodwaters, as the water is likely deeper than in appears and the roadway underneath could be compromised," Duff said.

Even though severe weather will be a low probability, some stronger storms will be possible. However, the main threat will be the heavy rainfall.

Although much of the region has seen adequate rainfall so far this year, this is not the case closer to the Gulf Coast. Therefore, any non-flooding rainfall will be beneficial in parts of South Texas, where severe to extreme drought is ongoing.

Besides the lack of rainfall, above-normal temperatures have exacerbated the drought. With the clouds and rain, temperatures will likely be near or below normal, especially on any days where rain falls for most of the day.

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Heading into the last days of May, there are a couple of scenarios as to the progression of the weather pattern.

While one scenario is for the system to move southwestward, shifting the focus of the rain to places in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, there is also the possibility that the cut-off system will slowly drift southward, which would keep much of the rain focused over central Texas.

Either way, it appears that Texas is in for a soggy stretch starting on the Memorial Day holiday and for many days after that.

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