Eastern India to Bangladesh still on alert for brewing tropical system

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May. 15, 2020 4:16 AM

While a tropical low in the Bay of Bengal has been slow to develop, it is still expected to strengthen in the coming days.

The low, which has churned at a glacial pace near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands since last week, brought some locations, including Banda Aceh, a total of 11.89 inches of rain (302 mm) in just a few days last week.

As this system drifts northwest, away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the coming days, a more noticeable change will be underway.

"There is now a fairly well-defined low circulation around the tropical low in the Bay of Bengal, showing it is slowly starting to strengthen," said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

Late in the day on Thursday, local time, the India Meteorological Department designated this storm as a well-marked low, signaling that this feature continues to organize.

Traveling through the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal, providing one of the key ingredients of tropical development, will help the system to strengthen further in the coming days.

For a while, an area of low wind shear will add to the strengthening of the low. However, the storm's strength will not go into next week unchecked.

"As the system moves farther to the north, wind shear will increase across the central and northern Bay of Bengal, which should limit how intense the system can get," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.

AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that strengthening will be very slow, and a depression is unlikely to form until the weekend, or even early next week.

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There are still a few variations in how long it could take the tropical low to make its way northward closer to the Banladesh coastline.

The tropical low may wobble westward, allowing for a few showers to linger off the coast of Sri Lanka and southeastern Indian cities like Chennai. Or the system may bolt northward more quickly before stalling, bringing outer rainbands to parts of Myanmar.

Either way, a landfall of an organized tropical system is possible near the norther part of the Bay of Bengal early to the middle of next week.

Due to some uncertainties, locations from east-central India to Myanmar should all be prepared for impacts from this tropical system, especially given the global COVID-19 pandemic.

Street shops are seen collapsed due to gusty winds ahead of the landfall of cyclone Fani on the outskirts of Puri, in the Indian state of Odisha, Friday, May 3, 2019. Indian authorities have evacuated hundreds of thousands of people along the country's eastern coast ahead of a cyclone moving through the Bay of Bengal. (Photo/AP)

In the beginning of May, India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, extended the world's largest lockdown until May 18. The country recently experienced its largest single-day spike in COVID-19 related deaths. However, the nation's recovery rate is improving.

Preparedness plans may take longer than usual to put into place and, should a storm approach during a continued lockdown, shelters may cause residents to huddle in larger groups than what is normally allowed.

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It is not uncommon for tropical systems to develop in the Bay of Bengal or Andaman Sea during the beginning of May. Tropical activity usually increases before the arrival of India's southwest monsoon.

"The northern Indian Ocean tropical season officially is boundless, meaning tropical cyclones can form any time of year. However, the northern Indian Ocean tropical season has two peaks. The first peak is from April to June, or pre-monsoon, and the second peak spans from September into December, or post-monsoon," Nicholls said.

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