Budding depression in Arabian Sea may bring 2 years' worth of rain to Salalah this weekend

By Maura Kelly, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated May. 30, 2020 1:02 PM

After Cyclone Amphan made headlines last week for its impacts on northeastern India and Bangladesh, the focus will switch to the body of water on the western side of India as multiple tropical features will be monitored for development in the coming days.

The more pressing area AccuWeather forecasters are focused on is located near the Arabian Peninsula. Meteorologists are monitoring an area of low pressure in the Arabian Sea located just north of Socotra, Yemen, for tropical development through the end of the week.

Located over the warm waters of the western Arabian Sea and in an area of light wind shear, the low developed into a depression late in the day on Friday as it approached the coast of the peninsula.

If the storm lingers just off the coast of the Arabian Peninsula it could strengthen into a deep depression into the beginning of the week, but once the storm moves over land further strengthening will become unlikely.

Regardless of intensity, this feature will threaten to produce periods of heavy rainfall in parts of Oman and Yemen through the weekend.

Even though this system could trigger gusty winds and stir up rough seas, flooding downpours will be the main threat with areas of flooding expected across the region.

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"The heaviest rain will fall along the Dhofar coast of Oman and Al Mahrah coast of Yemen with rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches)," said AccuWeather Lead International Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.

An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 380 mm (15 inches) is possible in this area including Salalah, Oman. This amount of rain would be about two years' worth of rain for the city in just a few days.

Salalah typically receives about 131 mm (5.16 inches) of rainfall in a year.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches (25-75 mm) are possible from Dhofar Governorate of Oman into the Governorates of Al Mahrah and Hadramaut of Yemen, he added.

According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk, downpours can lead to a rapid rise in water, especially where water rushes down hillsides from the higher elevations.

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Any wobble in the path as the storm moves onshore could cause the heaviest rain area to shift this weekend.

Into the beginning of next week, the system is forecast to track across Yemen where it will continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms.

Widespread heavy rain is not expected during the early half of the week, but any localized downpours can lead to flooding issues.

This will not be the last tropical threat for the Arabian Sea as another tropical system will begin to organize during the first days of June.

An area of low pressure forecast to move over the Arabian Sea early next week will be watched by AccuWeather meteorologists throughout the week for the further development.

"Light shear and warm water should allow any tropical low to strengthen as it tracks toward the northwest next week," added Nicholls.

According to Nicholls, the exact track through the end of the week is unclear at this time, so areas from Gujarat and coastal Pakistan to Oman will need to monitor for possible impacts late next week or next weekend.

There is also the potential that the system will struggle to organize if the low tracks close to the western coast of India.

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