Forecasters put Australia on alert for tropical development at start of April

By Courtney Spamer, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Mar. 28, 2020 10:28 AM

AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring the waters surrounding Australia, and believe one location could be hit by downpours, even before the development of a tropical cyclone.

"An active pattern is likely to take shape on the northern fringe of Australia, allowing for rounds of showers and thunderstorms to spread across the Cape York Peninsula and the Top End," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Arafura Sea. It is in this area that a weak tropical low is expected to develop as early as this week.

The development of this low will help to enhance showers and thunderstorms across Papua New Guinea and northern Australia into Tuesday, by injecting heavy tropical moisture.

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Rainfall amounts of 25-50 mm (1-2 inches) are possible in these locations. Any area hit by multiple rounds of heavier rainfall will have the potential to approach the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 100 mm (4 inches).

Flash flooding will be most likely in low-lying and poor drainage locations, or in areas already hit by a heavier downpour.

As the calendar turns from March to April, the threat for tropical development will become more imminent.

"The first few days of April look favorable for a more organized system to form on the northern side of Australia," added Houk.

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Uncertainty continues to surround the possible track of the tropical storm, should one develop. However, locations from Cairnes to Darwin should all be on alert for more tropical impacts.

Even if the low does not become a defined tropical system, it will likely deliver even more heavy rain to northern Australia, which can lead to localized flooding concerns.

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