Florida is searing through what could be a record dry and hot March, and that combination is raising the threat of wildfires and drought heading into the heart of the state's dry season.
If you're not at least a part-time Florida resident, you may not know the state even has a dry season. From late October through early May, the state typically doesn't receive the type of daily downpours that have soaked many a summer afternoon at the beach or theme parks.
Even though March is in the heart of this drier time of the year, parts of Florida are threatening records with virtually no rain all month.
Tampa International Airport hasn't picked up any measurable rain since Leap Day. If this holds, it would be only its third March on record without at least 0.01 inches of rain (2006 and 1907 were the others).
This map of March rainfall through March 30, 2020, shows parts of the Florida Peninsula have been almost completely dry while other parts of the South have been soaked.
Daytona Beach, Fort Myers, Key West and Orlando haven't fared much wetter, with each managing only a paltry 0.02 inches so far. Daytona Beach is on pace to break its record-dry March in 2006, when only 0.08 inches were measured.
In fact, parts of the Florida Peninsula have been the driest locations anywhere in the Lower 48 states in March, according to an analysis from NOAA, drier than even Death Valley, California (0.28 inches).
In March, high pressure has been persistent and strong near the Gulf Coast and Florida, steering frontal systems generally north of the Sunshine State and suppressing rain.
It has also produced summerlike heat.
According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, Daytona Beach, Orlando and Pensacola were each on pace for their hottest March on record.
Jacksonville crushed its March all-time record high on Saturday by soaring to 94 degrees. Fort Myers' nine days of 90-degree-plus heat more than doubled its previous March record from 1949.
Daily high and low temperatures in March 2020 through March 30 in Fort Myers, Florida. The area shaded in brown denotes the average range of daily temperatures in Fort Myers in March.
The first cold front since early March will sweep through the Florida Peninsula into early Wednesday, providing relief from this recent March heat wave.
But, true to form for the dry season, it won't bring soaking relief.
Scattered thunderstorms are most possible along the Interstate 10 corridor of North Florida and the Panhandle.
The rest of Florida may have a few showers along and ahead of the front, but rainfall totals will be light.
Fire Danger and Developing Drought
This persistently dry, hot pattern has dried out soil and vegetation.
This typically happens in spring, but the extreme lack of March rain and blistering heat raised the fire danger much higher, particularly south of Interstate 4. This is illustrated by one index used by fire-weather forecasters known as the Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI).
The lack of March rainfall is increasing drought indices around the area.
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As of Tuesday, 87 wildfires were active across the state and had burned just over 2,000 acres, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management.
One wildfire in Bay County, northeast of Panama City, charred over 100 acres last weekend. Compounding the wildfire danger in the Florida Panhandle was the 2.8 million acres of damaged or downed trees from Hurricane Michael, providing fuel and making access to existing fires more difficult, according to the Florida Forest Service.
The Timbercrest Road fires continue to grow and is burning in a heavily-wooded area with considerable blow down left behind by Hurricane Michael.
Because of its location and the dry, windy
conditions in the forecast, this fire has the potential of becoming much larger
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Burning bans were implemented in Alachua, Brevard, Manatee and Osceola counties, in addition to Duval, Hillsborough, Orange, Pinellas and Sarasota counties, where outdoor burning is banned year-round by county ordinance.
The aforementioned cold front's stronger winds and potential for lightning strikes in any thundershowers could be problematic for starting new wildfires or spreading existing ones, despite cooler temperatures and increased humidity.
As of March 24, only a few areas in Florida were considered in drought, according to the Drought Monitor analysis. Much of the state was considered abnormally dry.
The state's wet season, when heat and humidity build and ignite more frequent soaking thunderstorms, usually kicks into gear later in May.
If high pressure remains stubbornly in place until then, the Sunshine State could be in for a challenging spring of wildfires.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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