WINTER WEATHER Updated Feb. 28, 2020 2:31 PM
The lake-effect snow machine began cranking into high gear on Thursday with some of the heaviest bands pouring off Lake Erie and Lake Ontario into western New York and kicking up whiteout conditions at times.
Travel concerns increased throughout the day as heavy winds whipped the snow, lowering visibility to nearly zero in spots. At the airport in Watertown, New York, visibility reached zero around 2:15 p.m.
Roads around Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo ranged from wet to covered in snow and ice. Farther north, some road conditions were listed as "severe" due to the snow and ice accumulation, according to the New York Department of Transportation (NYSDOT).
The agency also said an empty tractor-trailer ban was in effect on the state thruway from the Lackawanna Toll Barrier to the Pennsylvania state line.
The Thursday snowfall was just the beginning of a multi-day event that could reach extreme levels, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. Blizzard warnings remained in effect early Friday morning for parts of the upper reaches of northern New York as forecasters predicted as much as 5 feet of snow could accumulate by late this week.
Areas south of Buffalo and north of Syracuse are the locations where the National Weather Service (NWS) issued blizzard warnings. It is in these same two areas, where AccuWeather is anticipating the heaviest lake-effect snow as a strengthening storm pulls to the north of the region.
Road crews were out amid the near-whiteout conditions and low visibility around the Buffalo area on Thursday, working to keep the roads passable and safe, officials said.
Maintenance crews were called to the scene of this accident on Interstate 90 in New York on Feb. 27, 2020 at Exit 54 near the towns of West Seneca and East Aurora. (New York State Thruway Authority)
Lake-effect snow wasted no time ramping up on Thursday on the eastern sides of lakes Erie and Ontario.
By Thursday night, a little over a foot of snow had fallen near Springville, New York.
Heavy lake-effect snow being whipped by strong winds was reported in Oswego and made for a difficult walk back from class for one student at the State University of New York in Oswego.
In the wake of a disruptive winter storm that moved across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast at midweek, a cold west to northwest flow across the region kicked the lake-effect snow machine into overdrive.
Lake-effect snow activity typically diminishes by late February as the ice coverage across the Great Lakes tends to reach is maximum for the year. Normally, about 40 percent of the lakes are covered by this point of the season, but with a mild winter so far across the region, ice coverage was only a meager 9.6 percent as of Feb. 26.
(Image/NOAA)
With the lakes nearly ice-free, extremely unstable atmospheric conditions can develop as cold air filters over the relatively warm waters.
Along with the threat of additional snow, strong winds over the lakes will lead to building waves. This can can cause concern for flooding and additional erosion along area beaches.
"The strong westerly winds created a condition on Lake Erie called a seiche on Thursday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said. "The winds have caused water to pile up and cause flooding on the eastern end of the lake, near Buffalo, New York."
"The same conditions can cause water levels to drop on the western end of Lake Erie," Sosnowski added. "But, as winds ease, the lake levels will drop on the eastern side and then rise on the western side and can create a rocking effect like water in a bathtub."
This radar image, taken at 1 p.m. Friday, Feb. 28, 2020, shows multiple bands of lake-effect snow stretching from Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York state. (AccuWeather)
As AccuWeather predicted, the wind flowed in such a way to result in lake-effect bands tracking across multiple lakes. One band on Thursday night stretched from Lake Huron to Lake Ontario.
For a time on Friday, the band of heaviest lake-effect snow had shifted north of Watertown and into towns such as Cape Vincent, Theresa and Antwerp, New York.
When the wind direction sets up in this manner over the lakes, snowfall rates downwind of Lake Ontario can sometimes exceed 3 inches per hour. Along with the extreme snowfall rates, thundersnow can occur within the snow bands.
These extreme snowfall rates will likely target the Tug Hill Plateau region of New York state, situated east of Lake Ontario, into early Saturday morning. Through this time frame, upwards of 45 inches of snow could fall.
The last time the Tug Hill Plateau area picked up more than 2 feet of lake-effect snow was from an event that occurred Jan. 29 to Feb. 2, 2019. Prior to that snow episode, the region last had snow amounts on par with what forecasters are predicting for this week more than two years ago during a Christmastime snowfall that spanned Dec. 24-27, 2017. Accumulations as high as 64.7 inches were measured.
Along with the heavy snow, blustery winds could create snow drifts that could bury any car stuck out in the snow. Any unnecessary travel is strongly discouraged during the height of the lake-effect snow event.
Even though the heaviest snow will likely target the Tug Hill Plateau, residents in the Syracuse area will also have their fair share of snowfall into this weekend. Before snow activity winds down, 6-12 inches could fall through Saturday.
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Travel could become extremely hazardous, if not impossible, across portions of interstates 81 and 90 near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.
The snow amounts might not be quite as impressive as the Tug Hill Plateau, but the ski country in the mountains south of Buffalo, New York, will also deal with some significant snowfall from this event.
Snowfall totals around a foot across the high terrain of extreme western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania are possible through Saturday.
The snow will begin to taper off to a few flurries Saturday night and Sunday before high pressure brings dry and settled conditions to the region.
A substantial uptick in temperature will occur early next week. After the weather going into this weekend, it will feel like springtime for millions of people.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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