WINTER WEATHER Updated Feb. 22, 2020 9:45 AM
As February enters its final week, AccuWeather forecasters are eyeing two storms -- one weakening, the other strengthening -- that have the potential to dump snow on areas from the central Plains and middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes region and the interior Northeast.
Parts of the I-95 corridor, which have received well-below-average snowfall so far this season, will miss out on any snow that develops, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The first storm began in Southern California and the Desert Southwest over the weekend bringing rain and high-elevation snow, before moving into the southern Rockies.
As the storm moves east early Monday, it's forecast to reach peak intensity over the southern Plains before weakening while traveling northeastward toward the Great Lakes into Tuesday.
This storm will clash with the spring-like warmth holding over the eastern half of the country the moved in for the weekend, preventing most places from experiencing snow.
However, the northern fringe of the storm will collide with marginally cold enough air to threaten some snow.
"The storm still has the potential to produce a light to moderate snowfall from southern Iowa to the central part of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and part of central Ontario during the first part of the coming week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Cities that could pick up anywhere from a coating to a few inches of snow from the first storm include Topeka, Kansas; Kansas City, Missouri; Davenport, Iowa; Rockford, Illinois; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Grand Rapids, Michigan.
The first storm will tend to push colder air a bit farther to the east, which can lead to wintry trouble for cities such as St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit, and Cleveland. Across the border in Canada, cities like Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal could experience some wintry conditions, too.
The second weather maker is forecast to move into the United States late this weekend, first impacting Northwestern U.S. The region will be blasted with gusty winds, heavy rain in the valleys and heavy snow at pass levels.
This storm will break the stretch of dry weather the Northwest has enjoyed recently.
This storm will move east, creating some light snow for the northern Rockies, and perhaps the northern Plains, into Tuesday before rapidly strengthening mid-to-late week in the East.
This second storm, merging with the colder air introduced by the first storm in the east, may produce snow from the Midwest into interior parts of the Northeast Wednesday through Thursday.
The potential exists for a swath of significant snow to develop on the storm's colder, northwest flank from part of eastern Missouri to northern Maine and southern Quebec.
For portions of the eastern Ohio Valley and western slopes of the Appalachians, such as Pittsburgh, a rain-changing-to-snow scenario may occur.
How much rain mixes with snow, and exactly where the heaviest swath of snow ends up will depend on the track of the storm.
AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said the behavior of the jet stream will be critical in the storm's development and the track it takes. A high pressure off the East Coast, meaning the I-95 corridor, will dodge the snow threat from this weather system.
"Areas where it [snowfall] is very unlikely," Rayno said, "is where we've seen a snow drought all winter: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C."
Washington, D.C., has picked up 0.6 of an inch of snow this season. Typically, by this point the nation's capital has received 12.9 inches. Farther north, Philadelphia has recorded just 0.3 of an inch of snow or 2% of normal so far this season and New York City has picked up only 4.8 inches of snow so far this season, a mere 26% of its normal snowfall.
The storm, at this time, seems unlikely to bring heavy snow to this region of the East Coast, but is likely to generate strong winds in this area.
"While the storm during the middle part of next week would bring rain to the coastal Northeast and even a large part of the central Appalachians, it is likely to be an effective wind producer," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek.
Airline passengers should anticipate delays and turbulence related to wind from the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic to the Great Lakes and New England spanning Wednesday and Thursday. There is potential for flight disruptions in the mega airline hubs of Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta and New York City from wind, in addition to or instead of heavy precipitation.
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In the wake of this storm, an extensive push of cold air is forecast to plunge southward across the middle section of the nation.
"The cold air will advance southward first at midweek then spread eastward late in the week," Anderson said.
Cold air quickly spreading southward may limit the risk of severe weather over the South Central states. However, there may be an elevated risk of severe weather in the southeastern corner of the nation.
Once the cold air gets in, it may not be in such a hurry to leave this time.
"Not only may that cold air invade much of the central and eastern U.S., it could stick around longer than most outbreaks we have seen this winter," added Dombek.
At the very least, this will mean an uptick in heating demands and perhaps extensive and longer-lasting episodes of lake-effect snow than which have occurred this winter so far. Usually, during late February and early March, ice coverage is extensive over the Great Lakes and tends to limit lake-effect snow. The Great Lakes are largely free of ice this winter, leaving them open to add moisture to the atmosphere and potentially trigger heavy snow under the right (cold) conditions.
Any storms that manage to roll through that cold air during early March are more likely to bring snow, rather than rain. This includes the snow-drought areas of the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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