Today has not been truly warm in the area from Maryland to Maine, but with temperatures near 50 degrees, it was certainly warmer than average for a day near the end of February. However, a big change is coming. A cold front that was approaching western Pennsylvania as the evening commute was starting will move off the East Coast Thursday.
In the meantime, a band including heavy rain and even thunderstorms has developed ahead of the front. At 6 p.m., the thunderstorms were confined to West Virginia, but since the system is strengthening, they could spread northeastward tonIght.
The map below is a forecast for Thursday at 1 p.m. EST:
Forecast map (NAM model) for 7 a.m. EST Thursday shows a storm center (marked by an L) over eastern New York state. Significant snowfall in the six hours leading up to 7 a.m. is shown by the dark blue area. While some snow showers can occur virtually anywhere from the mountains in the middle of Pennsylvania to southern New England with the onrushing cold air, little or no accumulation is likely. The most risk for slippery spots will be over the higher terrain.
The isobars north and west of the storm suggest strong winds. West to northwest winds can gust to about 30-40 mph in the I-95 corridor from mid-morning on, accentuating the change to colder air. However, the forecast map for Saturday night at 7 p.m. EST (below) shows a southwesterly flow of milder air coming across the Plains. Although it will be cold in the Northeast, the strong winds will have ended.
The following map shows NBM-predicted temperatures at various times from today well into next week. NBM stands for a "national blend of models," a new National Weather Service product. Jeffrey Craven is the manager of the project. He worked for AccuWeather at the start of his career from 1988 until early 1991 and it is no surprise to me that he has been so successful. Do an online search for NBM to find out more about the product.
1 p.m. EST Wednesday.
1 p.m. EST Thursday.
1 p.m. EST Friday.
1 p.m. EST Saturday.
1 p.m. Sunday. The cold is starting to ease out as milder air approaches.
1 p.m. EST Monday.
By Tuesday afternoon at 1 p.m., it would feel like early spring from the Ohio Valley through the Middle Atlantic states.
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