Sudanese brick makers work in an agricultural field in the capital Khartoum's district of Jureif Gharb on Nov. 11, 2019.
More than 100 million people could face a critical water shortage in Africa's Nile River Basin in the next two decades due to extreme weather, according to researchers.
The shortage is predicted to come in the midst of a climate catch-22: Rainfall in the region is expected to increase by as much as 20%, but extreme hot and dry spells are expected to continue to become more frequent, wreaking havoc on crops, power supplies and the availability of water for both industrial and human use.
"Like the rest of the world, the Nile Basin region has been warming due to rising global greenhouse gas concentrations. Because rainfall is projected to slightly increase in the region, the frequency of dry years won’t change significantly. However, the rise in temperature means that when dry years happen, they will be hot," Dartmouth researchers Ethan Coffel and Justin Mankin wrote in an article Monday for the Conversation.
"These conditions will kill crops, reduce hydropower, diminish the water available for people and industry and heighten tensions over the distribution of regional water resources. By 2040, a hot and dry year could push over 45% of the people in the Nile Basin – nearly 110 million people – into water scarcity."
The article is based on data that was compiled for a study published in August by the journal AGU. Coffel and Mankin were both authors on the study, which also included researchers from the United Nations, the U.S. Army and Columbia University.
The Nile runs through 11 countries in Africa and is the world's longest river. The river is especially critical in Ethiopia, Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan and Egypt, where some 250 million people rely on its waters.
Besides water shortages, the aid group OXFAM says that more than 50 million people in several African nations, including Ethiopia, Sudan and South Sudan, face a hunger crisis due to drought, high temperatures and other extreme weather.
Hot, dry periods have become more common in the Upper Nile Basin over the past 40 years and the trend is likely to continue, Coffel and Mankin wrote.
"These hot and dry conditions will be similar to those that have resulted in crop failures, food shortages and humanitarian crises in the region over the past decades," they said. "In the past, hot and dry years occurred about once every 20 years; But this increase in frequency means that in the future, a hot and dry year could occur once every six to 10 years, making them a common experience for people in the region."
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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