Will your heater be working overtime this winter?

By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer

Updated Nov. 22, 2019 3:16 PM

The wintry 1-2 punch that AccuWeather predicted indeed delivered as expected over the last two weeks, potentially causing space heating costs – those for heating interiors – to rise across a large part of the United States, according to an AccuWeather analysis. 

Up until the last two weeks, many places had seen lower space heating costs compared to 2018 because it had been warmer up until then. But that changed quickly and will continue to change as winter arrives next month, which is why it’s helpful to read AccuWeather's annual winter forecast and keep a close eye on the exclusive AccuWeather 90-day forecast. 

Estimated heating costs in New York City, for example, were running 25.4% below last year and 33.3% below normal through Nov. 5. They’ve recovered to just 7.6% below 2018 costs – and 5% below normal – as of Nov. 17.

Boston’s heating costs were running 20.9% below last year (and 35.5% below normal) through Nov. 5. They’ve recovered to just 4.4% below 2018 costs and 14.3% below normal as of Nov. 17. Philadelphia’s costs went from 25.1% below last year and 32.9% below normal through Nov. 5 to 7.7% below 2018 costs and 4.2% below normal by Nov. 17.

For the heating season, which started Sept. 1, AccuWeather expects that heating costs could rise further compared to normal and to last year for a number of major cities through Feb. 15, 2020.

Washington, D.C., and Cincinnati will see substantially elevated costs, with Philadelphia, New York City and Boston also experiencing higher costs.

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Here are the estimating heating costs for 12 U.S. cities.

Estimated heating costs in Washington, D.C., are expected to rise from 5.6% lower than 2018 on Nov. 17 to 10.8% higher than last year’s costs by Feb. 15, 2020. Similarly, costs in Cincinnati are forecast to go from 10.1% below 2018’s costs as of Nov. 17 to 6.8% above for the heating season through Feb. 15. 

Other cities that AccuWeather forecasts to see elevated costs from Nov. 17 to Feb. 15 compared to 2018 include Philadelphia (7.7% lower to 5.2% higher), New York City (7.6% lower to 5.3% higher), and Boston (4.4% lower to 7.6% higher).

Two notable exceptions to continued rising heating costs are Chicago and Dallas. AccuWeather forecasts estimated heating costs in Chicago to go from 7.6% higher than 2018 through Nov. 17 to just 4.2% higher than last year by Feb. 15, 2020. And AccuWeather’s exclusive 90-day forecast calls for estimated heating costs in Dallas, which were 20% higher compared to 2018 through Nov. 17, to lower to 11.6% higher by Feb. 15. 

The heating season typically runs from Sept. 1 through the following April or May. The costs of heating, including electricity and fuel oil, vary from year to year and from place to place, so the percentage change in your bill may vary from these percentages. 

For those concerned about keeping heating costs down as winter's chill sets in, there are several steps that can be taken. Simple hacks such as replacing worn weather strips, monitoring thermostat settings, making sure heating equipment is well maintained, and upgrading a home's insulation can all lead to significant savings on energy costs.

In addition, closely monitoring the weather is essential for knowing about fluctuations in potential heating demands, so select your city’s forecast page on AccuWeather.com and view the monthly outlook to stay informed about weather trends over the next 90 days. 

Download the free AccuWeather app to track the temperature for your area. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.