Sunday, November 24, 2019

Tropical threat to return to the West Pacific

Updated Nov. 24, 2019 2:30 PM




After a short break in tropical activity for the Mariana Islands and the Philippines, residents will once again have to monitor a budding tropical system.
A broad area of low pressure near the Marshall Islands has the potential strengthen in the coming days.
As this feature drifts to the northwest through the beginning of the week, it will be in an area of low wind shear. This can allow the system to organize into a tropical depression.
An area of high pressure over the Pacific Ocean will help to steer the potential depression to the northwest toward Guam and the Mariana Islands into the middle of the week.
If the storm is able to wrap up quickly, it could become a tropical storm by this time. This can lead to locally damaging wind gusts near the center of the storm.
Regardless of intensity, the system is expected to bring downpours and gusty winds to the region.
Shipping interests should avoid the area as rough seas will also be likely.
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Into the second half of the week, the area of high pressure can spilt as a non-tropical system develops near Japan.
This system looks to slow the track of the tropical feature while also pulling moisture north. Periods of heavier rain will spread to the northern Mariana Islands while the storm may stall over the Philippine Sea.
If the storm near Japan is strong enough, it may be able to pick up the tropical storm and carry it to the northeast. This path would bring little impact to land.
However, at this time, the more likely scenario is that the tropical feature will begin to once again track to the west as the storm system near Japan moves away.
Residents in the Philippines and eastern Asia should monitor the storm into the weekend and the beginning of next week. The storm has the potential to bring flooding rainfall, strong winds and rough seas to these regions.

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