Updated Oct. 19, 2019 9:59 AM
Rain, wind and the threat for isolated tornadoes are increasing across the southeastern United States as Tropical Storm Nestor nears landfall, which is expected to occur by midday Saturday.
Tropical Storm Nestor strengthened into the 14th-named system of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season early Friday afternoon over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. It's currently located 80 miles south-southwest of Panama City, Florida. The system is racing northeastward at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings have been issued along Florida’s west-central coast. A tornado watch has also been issued for part of central Florida due to the risk of tornadoes on the eastern side of the storm.
On Friday night, a confirmed tornado was reported near Lakeland, Florida. There have been reports of damage to homes and a church in Kathleen, Florida, which is located just northwest of Lakeland.
The sun rising on Tropical Storm Nestor as it nears landfall on Saturday. (Image/NOAA)
Storm surge along the coast and heavy tropical downpours have already lead to flooding across parts of Florida Friday night into Saturday morning.
By 5 a.m. EDT Saturday, Daytona Beach, Florida, had already broken their daily rainfall record, with 3.26 inches having fallen and the rain still coming down, the National Weather Service office in Melbourne said on Twitter.
"This also makes October 2019 the 5th wettest on record with 12.72 [inches]," the post said. "The wettest October on record for Daytona Beach is 13.68 [inches] set in 1941."
AccuWeather National Weather Reporter Jonathan Petramala posted a video on Twitter early Saturday morning which showed storm surge flooding beginning in Apalachicola, Florida.
See Jonathan Petramala's other Tweets
A report from Franklin County, Florida, stated that several trees were down along Highway 98 five miles west of Carrabelle. Bay water was reportedly splashing onto the road.
Rain from Nestor spreading over parts of Florida, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina on Saturday morning.
Nestor is projected to strike along the Florida Panhandle on Saturday morning as a strong tropical storm. It could make landfall within 50 miles of Mexico Beach, Florida, the site where Hurricane Michael made landfall as a destructive Category 5 hurricane just over a year ago on Oct. 10, 2018.
The rating for this system on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is less than 1 and will be focused along the Florida Panhandle. The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes ranges from values of less than 1 to 5.
In terms of economic impacts to the region, AccuWeather Founder and CEO Dr. Joel N. Myers said, "No significant overall economic impact is expected," from the storm, but he added, "There will be some brief economic impact where heavy rains and coastal flooding occurs."
The worst of the storm will focus on areas near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. This is the area where the strongest winds and highest storm surge is likely to occur. Isolated tornadoes can also touch down on the northeastern side of the storm.
"Nestor will bring heavy rainfall, damaging winds and a coastal storm surge to parts of the Florida Panhandle and northwestern Florida during Saturday morning," AccuWeather's Chief Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Nestor will weaken as it moves inland, but much of the southeastern United States can still expect gusty winds, flooding rainfall and isolated tornadoes. A general 1-3 inches of rain is forecast from the northeastern Gulf coast to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 6 inches.
The first rain from Nestor began to fall along the Gulf Coast my midday Friday from New Orleans to Tampa, Florida. Rain will intensify and spread inland through Saturday, causing disruptions at events such as high school and college football games, outdoor weddings and fall festivals.
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell issued a state of emergency declaration on Thursday as a result of the storm's projected impacts in addition to lingering issues from last week's deadly collapse of a hotel that was under construction near the city's French Quarter.
The University of West Florida closed their campus on Friday afternoon, and will remain closed until midday Saturday in anticipation of Nestor.
Shellfish harvesting areas off the coast of Florida have been closed by the state's Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services until Nestor has passed.
City officials are working to demolish two unstable cranes at the site of the Hard Rock hotel collapse, which killed three people and injured more than 20 people on Saturday, Oct. 12. According to the Associated Press, officials will demolish the cranes with a "series of controlled explosions that would drop them straight down without damaging gas and electricity lines and historic buildings."
A satellite image shows the NOAA42 P-3 Hurricane Hunter plane as it collected data in Nestor over the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, October 18, 2019. (NOAA)
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, there are currently no tropical disturbances that are expected to develop into a named-tropical system such as Nestor.
"In terms of the long-range outlook for the Atlantic Basin, there may be signifiant inhibiting factors for tropical development during the latter part of October into early November," Kottlowski said.
"It is possible that tropical activity effectively shuts down after Nestor,” he added.
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