Updated Oct. 24, 2019 5:43 PM
An area of showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, currently dubbed 97L, has the potential to slowly organize, and it may become the 17th tropical depression of the Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather meteorologists say that two separate storms will form in the Gulf of Mexico late this week. The first of which is located closer to the United States coastline and it is expected to be non-tropical in nature, according to Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather’s top hurricane expert. However, it will unleash a rainstorm across the South into Friday before it eventually moves on to impact the Midwest and Northeast.
"The storm farther south is the one to watch for tropical development, especially if it stays separate from the rainstorm over the Southern states and a trailing cold front that extends into the Gulf of Mexico," Kottlowski said.
Development may take place prior to this weekend.
"However, if the tropical feature gets tangled up in the cold front, then development and strengthening are much less likely," Kottlowski said.
Even if the feature fails to develop, moisture associated with it will tend to stream northward into the Deep South and enhance the rainfall in part of the region. The enhanced downpours could lead to numerous flooding incidents, even in areas experiencing long-term drought.
If the feature stays separate from the initial cold front and develops, a second batch of heavy rain would likely move northeastward and could reach areas that might largely missed by the first rainstorm in the Southeast.
A tropical disturbance, dubbed 97L, gathers in the Bay of Campeche, or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, on Thursday morning, Oct. 23, 3019. (NOAA/GOES-EAST)
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) released a special outlook for the system in the Bay of Campeche, or the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, on Thursday morning as it showed signs of gathering.
"Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the circulation of the low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has become a little better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday," the NHC said in the outlook.
Into this weekend, there is a 50% chance for the system to develop enough spin to be classified as a tropical or sub-tropical depression and storm, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.
The next name on the Atlantic list is Olga if it strengthens into a tropical or sub-tropical storm.
The last time a storm formed over the Gulf of Mexico this late in the season was when Juan took shape in 1985, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist.
Over the coming weekend, the disturbance is likely to drift northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico toward the U.S.
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It will encounter wind shear, which will largely be generated by the non-tropical rainstorm, as it prowls across the Gulf of Mexico during this weekend.
These strong winds of varying direction and speed at different layers in the atmosphere may prevent the tropical disturbance from becoming strong or developing in the first place.
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