Updated Oct. 11, 2019 12:30 PM
A large area of showers and thunderstorms off the western coast of Mexico will attempt to organize into a named tropical cyclone this weekend. The name Octave would be given to the system if it reaches tropical storm strength.
While the potential tropical cyclone may initially form several hundred miles southwest of Baja California, showers and thunderstorms may reach southern parts of the peninsula by Saturday night.
Satellite image showing a large area of showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Mexico on Friday. (NOAA/GOES-16)
Downpours may then expand northward across Baja California and into Sonora from Sunday into Monday.
From Monday night into Tuesday, moisture from this storm will race northeastward across Sonora and Chihuahua and bring the risk of localized flooding. This moisture will also be pulled into Texas and the southern United States bringing a risk for flooding next week.
There will be short window for this area to strengthen over the open waters of the East Pacific before moving into cooler waters near Baja California.
"From late this weekend into Monday, the potential exists for strengthening into a tropical storm," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
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Weakening is then expected before a potential landfall in southern Baja California Sur limiting the risk of damaging winds.
The potential tropical system could also stall before reaching Baja California and dissipate before making landfall.
"A separate tropical threat may attempt to form off the southern coast of Mexico during the middle of next week," said Kottlowski.
This tropical threat may bring the risks of flooding and damaging winds to parts of southern and western Mexico.
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