Moisture to stream into Florida, may conjure up tropical system

Updated Oct. 4, 2019 2:30 PM

Following Hurricane Dorian's extended and catastrophic journey across the Atlantic, the basin remained active throughout September. However, after Lorenzo's demise on Wednesday morning, the Atlantic Ocean is void of organized tropical disturbances for the first time in weeks... for now.

While meteorologists will monitor a few areas over the Atlantic Ocean for potential tropical development in the coming days, one area may slowly brew.

A broad area of showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean will shift into the southern Gulf of Mexico by next week, where meteorologists say the next tropical system could form.

However, strong vertical wind shear is in place over the western Gulf of Mexico and the wind field is expected to grow in coverage in the coming days, according to Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert.

Conditions may slowly change or change enough to allow some development over the region next week. However, any development would likely be slow and not explosive, Kottlowski stated.

Regardless of tropical development, a plume of tropical moisture is likely to extend northeastward across Florida from this area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico. This extension would occur ahead of a slowly advancing cool front.

While much of the Florida Peninsula is a bit better off in terms of rainfall, when compared to the abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions over the rest of the Southeast, rainfall will be welcome where too much doesn't fall in a short duration. The rainfall will help to green up lawns and golf courses.

Miami received only about one-third of its average rainfall for September, which is still well within the rainy season. Miami typically receives close to 10 inches of rain during September.

The pattern has the potential to deliver a few inches of rain to some locations over the Florida Peninsula over a span of several days next week.

Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, disturbances continue to move off the coast of Africa, although the Cabo Verde season is winding down. Meteorologists refer to tropical systems that spin up after emerging into the eastern Atlantic from Africa as Cabo Verde storms, and the season for this type of system generally extends from early August into early October.

"There is no indication of any quick development with any of these tropical waves in the short term, but they will continue to be watched as they drift westward in the coming days to the next couple of weeks," Kottlowski said.

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There is another area that has some potential for development next week.

"A storm may form in the middle layer of the atmosphere a few hundred miles east of Bermuda during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week," Kottlowski said.

This image, taken on Friday, Oct. 4, 2019, shows much of the tropical Atlantic Basin. There are no organized tropical systems at this time. However, that may not be the case next week. (NOAA/GOES-East)

"It's possible this mid-ocean system could acquire some tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm system during the middle or latter part of next week," he added.

If that storm were to merge quickly with another non-tropical storm, tropical development would be unlikely. However, if the non-tropical system and the mid-ocean storm remain separate, there is a greater chance for the mid-ocean storm to become tropical in nature.

Either way, it appears the mid-ocean storm is likely to remain east of the United States.

Despite the overall lull in tropical activity anticipated over the Atlantic Ocean through this weekend, things can change substantially in a few days.

The Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until Nov. 30.

Download the free AccuWeather app to find out when the heat will end in your location. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.