Updated Oct. 16, 2019 11:05 PM
A storm undergoing rapid strengthening will unleash drenching rain, high winds and even some high-elevation snow to the northeastern United States into Thursday.
The latest indications are the storm will strengthen at a fast enough pace into Thursday to be classified as a bomb cyclone. The barometric pressure has to fall at least 24 millibars, or 0.71 of an inch of Mercury, in 24 hours for the bomb cyclone criteria to be met.
In fact, this storm may allow new pressure records to fall, according to Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist.
A satellite view of the strengthening storm bringing heavy rain and high winds to the Northeast on Wednesday night, Oct. 16, 2019. (NOAA/GOES-EAST)
"Low pressure records for October are likely to be set in parts of New England. NOAA lists records which are over 980 mb for stations in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts New Hampshire, and southern Maine. At this time, forecast computer models suggest a sub-980-mb low pressure system in those areas into Thursday morning," Ferrell said.
Since winds on the front side of the storm are likely to be from the east or southeast, instead of the northeast for New England, it is not likely to be considered a true nor'easter.
However, the storm is packing a heavy punch with travel disruptions, tree damage, power outages and coastal flooding.
Strong winds were downing trees in portions of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Massachusetts late Wednesday.
Rain has ended the lower mid-Atlantic but will continue to drench areas farther north and east into Thursday. Rain in New England is likely to average 1-3 inches with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 4 inches.
Three people died and eight were injured following an accident involving a multi-passenger van on Wednesday afternoon in Chester County, Pennsylvania according to Pennsylvania State Police.
The cause of the accident remains under investigation, however, AccuWeather meteorologists say rainy weather could be to blame.
“At the time of the crash, heavy rain was falling across the area, and could have been a factor,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Jake Sojda said.
Heavy rain can significantly reduce visibility as well as cause hydroplaning, especially at high speeds in heavy rain.
“The heavy rain causes a layer of water to form on the roads, which can cause the tires of a vehicle to become 'disconnected' from the pavement surface and thus the vehicle loses traction, much like an icy surface,” Sojda said.
The weather in New York City on Wednesday evening postponed the scheduled ALCS game until Thursday evening when mainly dry, but blustery and cool conditions are anticipated.
Travel delays struck airports in the northeast due to weather and wind, triggering a Traffic Management Program for traffic arriving to the John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York on Wednesday night.
From the standpoint of abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions, the rainfall is welcomed.
However, enough rain can fall at the local level in some urban areas to cause minor street and poor-drainage area flooding, which can disrupt ground travel.
Street flooding was reported in the Philadelphia metro area late Wednesday.
Where leaves are falling or have recently fallen in wooded areas, the wet pavement can make for especially slick conditions on secondary roads. In some cases, fallen leaves can block storm drains.
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"We believe wind will be significant in some locations from the storm," AccuWeather Meteorologist Brett Rossio said.
Since this storm will strengthen as it moves along, gusts may be strong enough to break tree limbs, cause sporadic power outages and knock a considerable amount of leaves off the trees in areas where leaf color is peaking or past peak.
"We expect gusts around New York City to range from 40-50 mph, but gusts between 50 and 60 mph are likely in central and southeastern New England," Rossio said.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 65 mph is likely on Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and over parts of the Maritimes.
Winds that strong can lead to flight delays, flight cancellations, turbulence and travel restrictions over some of the high bridges in the region. Construction cranes may need to be secured.
The strongest winds over the Great Lakes, central Appalachians and mid-Atlantic coast are likely to occur on the back side of the storm into Thursday and will generally be blowing from the west and northwest with most gusts between 35 and 45 mph. Winds will be strong enough to cause large waves on the lakes as well as lakeshore flooding.
In New England, winds will flip around to the west and northwest from Thursday to Friday, after being from the east and southeast at midweek.
"The strong, easterly winds on the front side will lead to a period of above-normal tides and coastal flooding in eastern New England," Rossio said.
Tides may be 2-3 feet above normal during at least one high tide cycle.
The shifting winds are also likely to knock over some large or poorly-rooted trees and lead to property damage in New England.
As cold air charges in on the back side of the storm, a change to snow is likely in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, Catskills and Green and White mountains from eastern New York state to northern New England from Thursday to Thursday night. It is possible the highest terrain picks up a few inches of snow. Snowflakes are likely to be seen over some of the ridges in the Alleghenies of western Pennsylvania, western Maryland and West Virginia.
In terms of how the air feels, the coldest air of the season so far will rotate in following the storm.
Gusty winds are likely to cause AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures to run 10-20 degrees Fahrenheit lower than the actual temperature from Thursday to Friday.
This means that RealFeel® Temperatures may dip into the 20s and lower 30s over the central Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes region and to the 30s and 40s near the mid-Atlantic coast.
As winds diminish Friday night, temperatures are likely to dip to frosty levels over the interior mid-Atlantic with a freeze possible for the higher terrain of northern New York state and northern New England.
In most cases, the frost and freeze will not occur in areas that have not yet experienced temperatures at this level. However, there can be some exceptions where a frost occurs in locations that have avoided a growing season ending event in parts of the mid-Atlantic and central New England.
A few locations may equal or dip slightly lower than their lowest point so far this season in terms of actual temperature by Saturday morning.
That mark is 34 F in Pittsburgh, 42 in Boston, 45 in New York City, 46 in Philadelphia and 49 in Washington, D.C.
As colder air plunges into the region, the bomb cyclone's next stop will be the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
Temperatures are forecast to rebound for several days this weekend and into next week before much colder air sweeps in prior to the end of October.
Download the free AccuWeather app to see the latest forecast for your region. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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