Halloween storm to dump 1st snow of season in parts of Midwest

By Jake Sojda, AccuWeather meteorologist

Updated Oct. 28, 2019 3:20 PM

After a brief clip of wintry weather races through the central Plains and western Great Lakes to start the week, a much larger and more impactful winterlike storm will close out October.

First, a weak storm is forecast to produce a narrow swath of mainly light snow from northern Kansas to northern Michigan into Tuesday.

The much larger and more disruptive storm will follow within 24 to 48 hours.

"This is no joke, as a winterlike storm has the potential to put down a swath of heavy snow over a 750-mile long swath of the Heartland prior to the end of this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

"By midweek, a powerful storm will erupt out of the South and track northeastward across the country," Issac Longley, AccuWeather meteorologist, said.

Many locations across the East and Midwest will see major impacts from this storm through the end of the week, according to Longley.

This next storm will start with a disturbance diving south through the Rockies through Tuesday, bringing more snow to areas like Denver and Colorado Springs that have already seen an above-average start to the snow season.

It will transform into a powerful storm system as it shifts eastward and moves through the Midwest and Great Lakes.

"While the main impacts in the East will be gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall, cold air wrapping around the western side of the storm will bring accumulating snow from Kansas to Michigan," Longley said.

The snowfall rates will generally be light and accumulation may not occur on roads initially, but snowfall is forecast to ramp up substantially as the storm intensifies from Thursday to Friday.

Strong winds will also whip up across a large swath around the storm, affecting areas all the way from the Plains through much of the East as the storm strengthens.

Exactly where the heaviest snow and strongest winds occur will depend on the exact track of the storm. For example, a difference in track by 100 miles or less could mean the difference between heavy snow or lighter snow or even rain in cities such as Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis.

Currently, the heaviest snow is expected to fall from near the Iowa/Illinois border northeastward through part of northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and northern Michigan.

Confidence is high among forecasters that a swath of heavy snow will develop and impact major cities such as Madison, Wisconsin, Rockford, Illinois and Davenport, Iowa.

"Several inches of snow will fall across this stretch, with some locales receiving up to a foot," Longley said.

In addition to the heavy snow, strong winds will also help to create blowing and drifting snow, and may lead to near-blizzard conditions at times.

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The wind and snow in areas where trees have yet to lose most of their leaves can also lead to more widespread tree damage and power outages.

Stretches of interstates 39, 80, 90 and 94, among others in the Midwest are likely to experience treacherous travel conditions. Major airport hubs such as O'Hare and Midway in Chicago are also likely to experience significant delays and flight cancellations later Thursday, regardless of whether the bulk of the storm falls as rain or snow.

Trick-or-treaters in these areas may have more snow than candy filling up their baskets.

While the heaviest snow and strongest winds are expected to occur farther to the northeast, enough snow and wind will still also occur to cause some disruptions across the central Plains and parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Interstate 70 across Kansas could see tricky travel Wednesday as a few inches of wind-driven snow fall.

"Residents of Kansas City could have a few inches of snow to shovel as they wake up Thursday morning," Brett Rossio, AccuWeather meteorologist, said.

On the western side of the storm, strong winds will drive cold air through the southern Plains all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Even outside of areas that receive snow, strong winds will also be a major factor with this storm system. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast from late Wednesday into the first part of Thursday. In Dallas, near-freezing temperatures and gusty winds Thursday morning will drive AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures into the teens F.

As the storm ramps up, winds will also become strong from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes into the Northeast Thursday and Friday. Throughout this region, wind gusts of 40-50 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds possible through the eastern Great Lakes and along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.

Strong southwest winds are expected to funnel up Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from late Thursday night into Friday, causing even stronger wind gusts of 60-70 mph downwind of these lakes from western New York into the St. Lawrence Valley. Buffalo and Watertown, New York, are among the cities and towns that could be buffeted by the highest winds.

Lakeshore flooding will be a concern as the strong winds rip across the Great Lakes.

"Travel will be difficult for high-profile vehicles, which will have to battle dangerous crosswinds," Longley said.

"The wind can also down some trees and power lines, especially in areas where the trees have yet to lose many of their leaves."

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