Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Atlantic Ocean may spawn new tropical systems this week

Updated Oct. 8, 2019 4:34 PM



Although the Atlantic Ocean has remained void of named tropical systems since Lorenzo's demise last week, AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring several areas for tropical formation this week.
One such area is located between Bermuda and the Azores in the central Atlantic. The other area is located several hundred miles off the east coast of the United States.
While the first of these areas has the best chance to spawn tropical development, the second is of greater concern since it may cause rough surf, gusty winds and heavy rain along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England beaches later this week.
The area over the central Atlantic will slowly drift westward into an environment more conducive for development through midweek and could acquire tropical characteristics as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday.
Fortunately, this system would have little time to strengthen as it is forecast to move into an area of greater wind shear by Wednesday night into Thursday. Long before the system reaches Bermuda, it is likely to merge with a non-tropical storm and be carried away into the open waters of the north-central Atlantic.
If the system were to develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Melissa.
Boating and shipping interests across the central Atlantic should continue to monitor the progress and intensity of this system, but it is not forecast to pose any direct threat to land.
Meanwhile, the area of disturbed weather between the East coast of the United States and Bermuda is forecast to develop into an organized storm system by midweek and drift slowly northward.
"Those along the coast, as well as in Atlantic Canada, should monitor the evolution of this system in the coming days," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
At this time, no direct landfall is expected in the mid-Atlantic, eastern New England or Atlantic Canada, but rip currents and large swells from the storm will create dangers for boaters, surfers and swimmers.
Looking ahead to this weekend and next week, there is some concern for development over the western Caribbean, Sosnowski added.
The tropical Atlantic has several areas of interest that forecasters are monitoring. This image shows the basin during Tuesday morning, Oct. 8. 2019. (NOAA/Goes-East)
There is a high amount of uncertainty as to whether or not any organized system tries to take shape in this region, but environmental conditions should be conducive for development should such a system develop.
Interests in Central America should pay close attention to the Caribbean into early next week for potential tropical development.
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"Elsewhere over the tropical Atlantic, disturbances continue to move off the coast of Africa, but the season for this type of system to develop is generally winding down," Sosnowski said.
"There is no indication of any quick development with any of these tropical waves in the short term, but they will continue to be watched as they drift westward over the next couple of weeks," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Download the free AccuWeather app to stay up-to-date on the latest tropical activity. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.

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