Monday, October 28, 2019

After brief reprieve, relentless winds will keep California at extreme risk of wildfire outbreak

Updated Oct. 28, 2019 12:41 PM



Another round of strong winds will hit the western United States during the middle days of this week and once again raise the fire risk to critical levels over a large portion of California.
A short break in the gusty conditions will settle over the West during Monday night as the storm system responsible for the most recent snowfall over the central and southern Rockies departs for the Plains.
This break is not expected to last long, however, as the next storm system will be moving southeastward across the Rockies into midweek.
At the same time, high pressure from Canada will quickly follow in its wake, cause winds to increase and allow colder air to advance.
Northerly winds will arrive across Washington, Oregon and parts of Idaho early in the morning on Tuesday.
"It is the rapid rise in pressure that greatly contributes to high winds," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"As air rushes from high pressure to low pressure it gets squeezed through canyons and passes and flows downhill from the mountains it gains speed," Sosnowski said.
Wind gusts are forecast to be strongest across the Northwest throughout Tuesday with gusts frequenting 40-50 mph and locally stronger winds over the ridges and through the passes.
However, as is often the case with this setup, high winds will take aim at California.
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By Tuesday afternoon, strong winds from the north are expected to spread farther south into Northern California.
"Winds are expected to be strongest late in the afternoon and into the evening hours with frequent gusts between 50 and 60 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph in the northern part of the state," Sosnowski said. "The strongest winds are likely where the air is funneled through the north-south orientated canyons and valleys, as well as the passes."
The strongest winds will hit Southern California as well beginning Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday.
"Over Southern California, Santa Ana winds from the northeast are forecast to generate frequent gusts between 60 and 70 mph and an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 80 mph can occur in the southeast-northeast orientated canyons over the passes, hilltops and ridges," Sosnowski said.
Existing and new wildfires that break out can behave erratically and spread very fast toward neighborhoods. Burning embers can be carried for several miles and rapidly ignite new blazes downwind of the parent fire.
"These strong winds can also bring down trees or power lines as well as create areas of blowing dust," AccuWeather Meteorologist Max Gawryla said.
Once again, blustery winds will not be limited to California, as winds are expected to gust in the 40- to 50-mph range across Nevada and into the Great Basin Tuesday afternoon and evening.
While many have already been evacuated, and millions of others are without power across California due to numerous fires across the state, the fire threat will be renewed with this windstorm.
"The strong winds will make it a challenge to battle existing fires and any new fires that pop up," Brian Thompson, AccuWeather western U.S. weather blogger, said.
Winds blowing down the mountains will keep vegetation dry, and any spark can set fire to the brush.
"Following the midweek event, there may finally be a break in what has been a string of offshore wind events," Thompson added.
An area of high pressure forecast to sprawl more gently over the West through the late week is expected to bring a quieter pattern to the region, which should aid in the work to control fires burning across the region.
"It may not be until the second or third week of November before storms from the Pacific bring some rain to part of California," Sosnowski said. "Even then, rain is not likely to drench the entire state but may ease the fire season in northern areas."
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