Monday, September 16, 2019

Philippines to Japan on alert for multiple tropical threats this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist




A flurry of tropical activity is expected across the West Pacific during the week ahead and will threaten locations from the Guam to the Philippines and Japan.
Tropical Storm Peipah developed north of the Guam on Sunday night after dumping 100-200 mm (4-8 inches) on the region.
Downpours will continue across Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands through Monday, bringing an additional 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) and continuing the risk for flooding.
Peipah is forecast to weaken from Tuesday into Wednesday as the storm tracks northwestward into the open ocean between Guam and Japan with no further impacts to land expected.
Elsewhere, a tropical depression formed between Guam and the Philippines late last week, but weakened into a tropical rainstorm over the weekend.
That system slowed to a crawl on Sunday as it remained centered to the south of the Ryukyu Islands.
Early this week, it is expected that the system will start moving again and a westward trend is the most likely outcome. It is possible that it may organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm by the middle of the week.
"Because of the way the steering flow will vary, there is a pretty wide zone of potential of places this could go, spanning the area from the northernmost part of Luzon in the Philippines to southern Taiwan," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
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If the heaviest rainfall continues to be focused south of the storm's track, this would put the northern Philippines at greatest risk for flash flooding in the coming days.
A track farther to the north could spread these downpours into southern and eastern Taiwan by mid to late week.
Japan will also be at risk for impacts from a potential tropical cyclone in the short term as a strengthening storm system passes just east of the country into Monday night.
Regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone develops, the storm will pass close enough to Japan that rain will fall across parts of Honshu and Hokkaido.
The highest risk area for impacts will be along the east coast of Honshu, including the Tokyo area, which was hit hard by Faxai. While this storm is not expected to reach the intensity of Faxai, it brings new flooding and could damage any trees or structures that were weakened by Faxai.
In the longer range, another tropical threat may attempt to develop in the Philippine Sea late this week or this weekend.
If development occurs, a general track toward the north appears most likely which would put locations from the Ryukyu Islands to Japan at greatest risk for impacts.

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