Narda to unleash torrential rainfall, raise risk for mudslides across western Mexico

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Updated Sep. 30, 2019 11:29 PM

Narda made landfall as a tropical storm in western Mexico near Lazaro Cardenas on Sunday morning before weakening into a tropical depression.

However, on Monday, the storm moved back over open water and strengthened back into a tropical storm. Narda may now make a second landfall in the Mexican states of Sinaloa or Sonora.

While Narda is only forecast to be a tropical storm at peak strength, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes will be a 1 due to the high risk for flooding and mudslides.

Downpours have already inundated parts of Mexco's western coastline and surrounding areas with more than 175 mm (7 inches) reported in Acapulco and 125 mm (5 inches) in Colima.

The heaviest rainfall through the middle of the week is expected from Michoacan to Sinaloa with areas near and just inland from the coast at greatest risk for flooding and mudslides.

Image showing Narda near the coast of Mexico on Monday. (NOAA/GOES-16 satellite image)

Locations such as Zihuatanejo, Manzanillo, Puerto Vallarta, Tepic and Mazatlan will be in this zone of highest risk.

Additional rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) is forecast through Wednesday with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches).

As the tropical system moves northwestward, downpours will expand with it, encompassing areas across Durango, Chihuahua and Sonora.

While rainfall totals are not expected to be as high in these areas, a quick 25 mm (1 inch) of rainfall can result in flash flooding and raise the risk for mudslides.

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Rough seas, dangerous surf and rip currents will continue along Mexico's western coastline into midweek.

Daily showers and thunderstorms will also be a concern farther inland across the interior of central and southern Mexico into the middle of the week.

Satellite animation of Narda tracking near Mexico on Monday.

Locations such as Mexico City, Guadalajara, Durango, San Luis Potosi and Oaxaca will be at risk for these showers and thunderstorms that can produce localized flooding.

Baja California is expected to avoid the heaviest rainfall from Narda; however, localized downpours will be possible from La Paz southward to Cabo San Lucas each day through Wednesday.

Tropical moisture will then be pulled northward into New Mexico and Texas, where there will be additional flooding concerns.