Fall officially begins on Monday, Sept. 23, but two seasons, summer and autumn, will take turns controlling the weather over much of the northeastern United States in the coming weeks.
While temperatures will swing back and forth, the overall weather pattern will tend to favor above-average temperatures for the two-week period ending in early October.
"This conclusion has to do with the anticipated average position of the jet stream," Brett Anderson, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said.
"The setup will favor a southward dip in the West and a broad northward bulge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley," Anderson said.
Southward dips in the jet stream favor cool and sometimes unsettled conditions, while northward bulges in the jet favor warm and mainly dry conditions.
"There will be some fluctuations in the jet stream pattern which are likely to allow breaks of cool air to sweep from the Great Lakes to the Northeast states," Anderson said.
An episode of very warm conditions is in store for the Northeast this weekend to early next week, following crisp and cool weather from the middle to latter part of this past week.
Only a long-standing tremendous heat wave from 1895 may prevent many record high temperatures from being broken.
Highs were mainly in the 90s F over a several-day period centered on this weekend to early next week, 124 years ago. Many of these records are still in tact. Highs during the upcoming summer spell are forecast to range from the middle 80s to near 90.
People with outdoor plans can expect very warm to hot afternoons, similar to that of July or August, but without excessively high humidity that tends to occur during the middle of the summer.
One batch of cool air is forecast to advance from the Great Lakes on Monday to the Northeast on Tuesday.
While this air is not nearly as cool as that of this past week, temperatures will be shaved by an average of 10-20 degrees from their peak this weekend.
By Tuesday, highs are forecast to range from the middle 60s over northern New England to the middle 80s around the Chesapeake Bay.
Should a situation arise where low clouds form with a moist, easterly flow of air, daytime temperatures could be significantly lower from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast.
Temperatures may dip to frosty levels on one or more clear nights over northern New York state and northern New England. That won't be the first time for some areas, however. Temperatures during this past week's cool air dipped as low as the middle 20s over the Adirondack Mountains.
Warm and cool air will trade places again during the latter part of next week.
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During the pattern, the most significant temperature swings will be across the northern tier to the central Appalachians and the least noticeable over the lower part of the mid-Atlantic region.
The same pattern is likely to help steer tropical systems originating from Africa away from the coastal Northeast as well as the southern Atlantic coast. However, any system that brews in the Gulf of Mexico will have to be watched.
In the meantime, for those heading to area beaches on this last official weekend of summer, rough surf conditions from this past week should ease up with the departure of Humberto. However, surf may build early next week with Jerry spinning toward Bermuda.
While the projected track of Jerry later in the weekend and next week is one that takes the system over the open waters of the western Atlantic, to the east of the United States, its progress will have to be monitored.
Sunday is the last official full-day of summer for 2019 as the autumnal equinox will occur early Monday morning.
Download the free AccuWeather app to stay alert of tropical weather and surf advisories. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV , Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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