Tropical Storm Lekima to strengthen, threaten Taiwan to Japan later this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

A newly formed tropical storm is forecast to strengthen significantly this week and pose a threat to lives and property across eastern Asia.

Lekima organized into a tropical storm on Sunday after becoming a tropical depression in the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon on Saturday.

A general northwest track over the next several days will keep Lekima over the open waters of the Philippine Sea, limiting impacts to land but allowing the cyclone to gain size and strength.

It had been more than five months since the last typhoon roamed the western Pacific Ocean before Francisco became a typhoon on Monday afternoon, local time.

Lekima is expected to follow as the next typhoon in the West Pacific Basin by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Additional strengthening is forecast from Wednesday into Friday allowing Lekima to become a large and powerful typhoon with winds equal to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans.

There is a low chance that Lekima could go through a period of rapid intensification during the middle of the week, which could allow the storm to become even stronger.

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Lekima on Monday afternoon, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Satellite Image)

Rough seas will be churned up from northern Luzon to Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands much of this week with wind and rain from Lekima reaching the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan by Thursday, and worsening conditions expected on Friday.

In the longer range, there are two scenarios for Lekima's track. The first would take the storm across or just north of Taiwan as a typhoon late this week before turning into eastern China.

In this scenario, flooding rainfall, mudslides and damaging winds would all be possible across Taiwan and the islands of Yaeyama and Miyako. Okinawa would receive a glancing blow of wind and rain from the storm.

Although some weakening would be possible prior to reaching eastern China, areas from Fujian to Jiangsu would be at risk for flooding rainfall and locally damaging winds from as early as Friday through the weekend.

Lekima may eventually turn northward and bring impacts to South Korea and Japan next week in this scenario.

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A second scenario would take the cyclone over the southern Ryukyu Islands with a slight turn toward China before continuing northward with potential impacts across South Korea and Japan this weekend.

The Ryukyu Islands would suffer the brunt of the impacts from Lekima through Friday if this track occurs, sparing Taiwan and eastern China from any widespread flooding or damaging winds.

Locations at risk for impacts from Lekima across southern Japan and South Korea will endure a period of heavy rain and strong winds from Typhoon Francisco earlier in the week, heightening the risk for further flooding and damage from Lekima.