A newly formed tropical depression in the Philippine Sea will unleash flooding rainfall and elevate the risk of mudslides across the northern Philippines into early Wednesday.
The depression, which is known as Jenny in the Philippines, is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall in eastern Luzon.
Upon reaching tropical storm strength, the tropical cyclone will be given the name Podul by the Japan Meteorological Agency. This will also be the name used in other countries across eastern Asia.
Landfall is forecast to occur Tuesday night, local time, between Dingalan and Dilasag as a tropical storm.
Downpours will increase across Luzon and northern Visayas late Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the storm's arrival.
The heaviest rainfall on Tuesday will be found across eastern and southern Luzon before spreading westward across the southern half of Luzon on Tuesday night.
These areas can expect 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) of rainfall with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches) leading to significant flooding and a high risk for mudslides.
Satellite image showing a tropical depression near the Philippines on Monday afternoon, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Himawari 8 satellite image)
The heaviest rainfall in Manila is expected on Tuesday night, although downpours can still result in localized travel disruptions Tuesday afternoon.
A continued west-northwest track will take the storm quickly across northern Luzon and into the South China Sea by Wednesday.
A second tropical system is expected to develop in the Philippine Sea later this week and may track across the northern Philippines this weekend bringing another round of flooding.
As the storm continues to track westward, conditions will improve dramatically across the Philippines by Wednesday afternoon.
Concerns will then shift to locations from northern Vietnam to southeastern China for late this week and weekend.
The storm is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression as it crosses Luzon; however, strengthening is once again expected as it tracks westward over the South China Sea from Wednesday into Friday.
During this time, the tropical cyclone is expected to regain tropical storm status and may reach typhoon status prior to reaching land.
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A general west to west-northwest track during this time will take the storm near or just south of Hainan, China, and then into northern Vietnam and northern Laos.
Landfall is possible in Hainan late Friday followed by another landfall in northern Vietnam on Saturday.
The exact track of the storm will determine where the worst impacts occur, but locations from Hainan through the southern coast of Guangxi in China and from the border of China and Vietnam southward to Da Nang should be on alert for potential impacts from the storm.
Locations hardest hit by the storm can expect significant flooding and the risk of damaging winds and mudslides.
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