On the heels of four tropical cyclones that made landfall in eastern Asia so far this month, Bailu aims for Taiwan and China.
A tropical depression took shape over the Philippine Sea on Tuesday and strengthened to Tropical Storm Bailu at midweek. Bailu became a severe tropical storm on Friday. The storm is known as Ineng in the Philippines.
With Bailu already bringing rough seas to shipping and boating interests between northern Luzon and Taiwan, the strengthening tropical cyclone will move toward Taiwan.
Bailu may strengthen enough to produce winds equal to a Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean prior to reaching Taiwan. There is a small chance that Bailu could strengthen even further and briefly reach typhoon strength.
The track of Bailu will put Taiwan at risk for a direct hit by as early as Saturday afternoon with increasingly strong winds and heavier through Saturday morning.
A land-falling tropical storm in Taiwan would bring impacts ranging from heavy rainfall to damaging winds and mudslides.
The worst of the impacts to Taiwan are expected to be on the east-facing shores, as well as the southern half of the island, closest to the center of the system.
It is a close call as to whether or not Bailu actually makes landfall in southern Taiwan or passes just to the south. Either way, the flooding impacts are expected to be about the same.
"Waves of heavy, tropical rain are likely where rainfall amounts of 100-200 mm (4-8 inches)," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Houk.
An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches) or rain is most likely in the highest elevations or right near the center of the tropical system. Rainfall of this amount could certainly trigger mudslide and cut off more remote communities.
Rough seas and surf would also be a concern for eastern-facing coastal locations.
A continued track toward the northwest would then put locations across eastern China at risk for similar impacts before the end of the weekend.
If the storm were to make landfall in Taiwan, then it would be in a weaker state when it reaches China; however, if the storm passes just south of the island, then China could then be at risk for landfall from a powerful tropical storm or perhaps even a typhoon.
With Bailu is expected to maintain the strength of at least a tropical storm through landfall in eastern China, wind gusts up to 110 km/h (70 mph) will be possible near the center of the storm.
The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for wind of 150 km/h (93 mph) will be most likely at any landfall location, especially in the higher elevations.
Wind speeds of this magnitude are capable of snapping large tree branches, causing power outages and damaging structures.
Satellite image showing Bailu just north of the Philippines on Friday evening, local time. (RAMMB)
In addition to southern Taiwan, areas from eastern Guangdong to southern Zhejiang and Jiangxi in China are most at risk for these wind and rain impacts from Bailu.
Bailu is forecast to weaken over eastern China after moving inland over the mountainous terrain; however, some of its moisture will likely be pulled northeastward next week resulting in several days of downpours across Japan.
The West Pacific may remain active through the end of August with multiple areas being monitored for potential tropical development next week.
Northern locations in the Philippines, which are likely to only have minor impacts from Bailu through Saturday evening, local time, may not be out of the woods just yet in terms of tropical impacts.
Another tropical low in the Western Pacific could develop early next week, just east of the Philippines, threatening to bring more heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
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