Rounds of storms to enhance flood risk in central Plains, Mississippi Valley this week

By Kyle Elliott, AccuWeather meteorologist

For storm-weary residents in the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, Mother Nature shows no signs of providing any relief this week as more rounds of heavy, drenching storms are on tap.

The weather pattern from midweek into the start of the upcoming weekend will become stagnant. A boundary separating pleasant air across the Midwest from heat and humidity across the Deep South and southern Plains will serve as the train tracks along which these thunderstorm complexes are forecast to ride.

"The first of these complexes is likely to erupt across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska into Tuesday night," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

"Initially, these storms can be severe with large hail and perhaps a couple of isolated tornadoes," Sosnowski said.

Later on, the storms will congeal into a line that brings locally strong wind gusts and heavy rain. These storms may then keep moving or pave the way for new storms on Wednesday in parts of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.

AccuWeather meteorologists expect a similar situation to unfold each night through Friday, with new rounds of storms following a similar or identical path to the previous night’s deluge.

"The greatest risk of flooding will be in areas that have received heavy rainfall in recent weeks, and/or where storms tend to repeat this week,” Sosnowski said.

By the time the weather pattern finally shifts during the second half of the weekend, most locations from eastern Kansas and northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern Missouri and northern Arkansas will have received between 4 and 8 inches of rain.

Residents in the hardest-hit locations may see rainfall totals reach the double digits this week. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 12 inches is forecast.

"The greatest risks will be from rapid small stream and urban flooding, but not flooding of the major rivers,” Sosnowski added.

Record-breaking flooding caused catastrophic economic losses in the Mississippi Valley from this spring into the beginning of the summer, and many river gauges on the Mississippi only recently fell below flood stage.

While the rainfall will not be widespread enough to trigger new flooding concerns on the Mississippi, it can exacerbate what are currently minor flooding issues on the Missouri River following rounds of heavy rain last week.

“Some of the smaller tributary rivers that flow into the Missouri, Arkansas and Mississippi can experience brief, moderate flooding as well,” Sosnowski warned.

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In addition to causing flooding issues on streams and brief rises on seconday rivers, the rounds of heavy rain this week can trigger low-lying and poor-drainage area flooding.

Motorists traveling on portions of interstates 35, 40, 55 and 70, as well as secondary roads, that lie within this week’s threat zone should be prepared for lengthy travel delays and make sure to slow down in blinding downpours to reduce the risk of hydroplaning.

The storms may also cause airline delays at major hubs such as Kansas City and St. Louis.

Fortunately, for those with outdoor plans this week, the storms should be most widespread at night with more scattered activity during the daylight hours.

Still, people should be prepared to move indoors when the first clap of thunder is heard as it is at this time when you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

After a brief reprieve in the active weather pattern to end the weekend, AccuWeather meteorologists are concerned that more rounds of storms could be in the offing early next week and that the wet weather pattern may persist into the fall.

Download the free AccuWeather app to keep track of when wet weather will dampen your area using exclusive MinuteCast®. Keep checking back for updates on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.