Northern, western India brace for flooding as monsoon low ramps up next week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Downpours are set to spread over much of north-central and western India next week as another monsoon low tracks across the country.

This monsoon low will provide an extra punch as it absorbs moisture from former Tropical Storm Podul as it spins over the Bay of Bengal this weekend. A slow westward track will bring the monsoon low near the coast of northeastern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha by Monday.

There is a small chance that this monsoon low organizes into a depression prior to reaching the east coast of India; however, impacts from the storm would vary little as the depression would quickly move onshore and weaken.

Downpours will inundate locations from northeastern Andhra Pradesh, Odisha to Chhattisgarh and eastern parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh on Monday before slowly expanding northward and westward as the week progresses.

By midweek, downpours will stretch from northern Chhattisgarh, western Madhya Pradesh, eastern Gujarat and southeastern Rajasthan.

Downpours will continue in similar areas on Friday with weekly rainfall total of 75-150 (3-6 inches) from eastern Gujarat to coastal Odisha. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 m (12 inches) is possible.

These daily downpours will bring the risk of localized flooding and travel disruptions. There will also be a risk of mudslides in areas of rugged terrain. Aside from the risk of flooding, thunderstorms will also produce frequent lightning endangering anyone caught outdoors.

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While the monsoon low tracks across north-central India, a surge of moisture from the Arabian Sea will enhance rainfall along India's western coastline.

Locations from western Maharashtra southward to northern Kerala will be at greatest risk for flooding downpours next week.

Travel may disrupted in Mumbai, Ratnagiri, Panaji, Mangalore and Kozhikode on any given day as downpours can quickly begin and produce more than 50 mm (2 inches) in a few hours.

The total number of deaths related to the monsoon rainfall this year climbed above 1,000 earlier in August and may rise further due to next week's adverse weather.

Maharashtra has been one of the hardest hit states by monsoon rainfall this year. Around 250 people of died in flooding since the start of June, according to the Times of India.