Francisco to barrel through Japan, South Korea with heavy rain, strong winds early this week

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

An active pattern for tropical cyclones continues in the West Pacific as Tropical Storm Francisco threatens Japan with heavy rainfall and locally damaging winds early this week.

Following former Tropical Storm Wipha, which brought heavy rainfall to southeast China and northern Indochina in recent days, Francisco will threaten areas from southern Japan into the Korean Peninsula.

Francisco formed over the open waters of the West Pacific on Friday and is forecast to make landfall in Kyushu on Monday night as a strong tropical storm.

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Francisco on Saturday afternoon, local time. (Japan Meteorological Agency/Satellite Image)

Some additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall and there is a small chance that Francisco could briefly become a typhoon prior to making landfall.

As Francisco tracks towards southern Japan, boating and shipping interests should be prepared for rougher seas and strong winds in the vicinity of the storm.

Impacts may begin across southern Japan as early as late Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as the storm tracks west to northwest across southern parts of the country.

Damaging winds, flooding rainfall, mudslides and coastal flooding will all be possible across southern Japan, especially Kyushu, Shikoku and southwest Honshu.

Wind gusts up to 105 km/h (65 mph) are possible in coastal locations of southern and eastern Kyushu as well as southern and eastern Shikoku. Wind gusts of 65-80 km/h (40-50 mph) will be more common across the remainder of southern Japan. Similar gusts are possible across eastern South Korea from Tuesday night into Wednesday.

These winds will be capable of causing some damage to trees and could result in local power outages.

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Heavy rainfall will also be a concern across much of southern Japan and South Korean with 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) expected across much of Kyushu, southern Shikoku and central and eastern South Korea. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall of 250 mm (10 inches) is possible in eastern Kyushu.

Francisco will weaken due to interaction with Japan, but is expected to remain a tropical storm as it tracks across South Korea. A sharp turn toward the northeast will then take the storm into the Sea of Japan and eventually near or over Hokkaido, Japan as a tropical rainstorm late in the week.

Locations across Hokkaido will be at risk for localized flooding during this time; however, wind damage is not expected.