Forecasters on Friday are keeping a close watch on a tropical disturbance that will drift north across the Florida Peninsula and back over the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, where development to a tropical depression or storm may follow early next week.
And that's not all meteorologists are monitoring in the Atlantic basin as peak hurricane season ramps up and enters a "tropical red zone": Another system of tropical interest has taken shape over the middle of the Atlantic as well.
"All interests along the southern Atlantic coast of the United States are encouraged to monitor the progression of this disturbance and what may become a tropical storm," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said of the budding disturbance near Florida.
Satellite data shows that some rotation in the cloud shield had developed from Florida to the Bahamas has developed as of Friday morning.
This image taken on Friday, August 23, 2019, shows a mass of clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the Florida Straits and the northern Bahamas. (NOAA/GOES-East)
Some banding structure of the showers and thunderstorms was also evident over the Florida Straits.
"While wind shear was distorting the feature, we expect the disturbance to eventually move into an environment of warm water, moist air and much lower wind shear from northeast of Florida to southeast of the Carolinas," Kottlowski said.
"These conditions may allow the disturbance to become a tropical depression or storm," Kottlowski added.
The feature is forecast to take a curved path that will take it across South Florida into Friday night, central Florida on Saturday and then northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, during Saturday night.
The National Hurricane Center has designated the disturbance Invest 98L, and it's possible 98L will be declared a tropical depression while it's traversing Florida.
Tropical storms have been named while moving over land. Tropical Storm Julia from September 2016 was one such system to do just that over the Florida Peninsula.
As the feature travels over the Florida Peninsula, outbreaks of drenching and gusty thunderstorms are anticipated. Motorists should expect incidents of street and highway flooding.
Beach and boating interests along much of the Florida Peninsula should keep an eye out for rapidly developing and approaching squalls that can make seas and surf rough and produce lightning strikes into Sunday.
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The conditions may generate a couple of waterspouts as well.
As the feature begins to agitate the ocean, moderate to strong rip currents can develop.
It is from Sunday to Tuesday, as the feature swings back out over the Atlantic, when quick organization and strengthening may take place over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
"An uptick in winds and building seas and surf are likely along the Carolina coast to New Jersey during this period even if the center of the storm remains offshore," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
"There is the risk of coastal flooding and minor beach erosion, especially at times of high tide," Anderson said.
An area of high pressure over the interior Northeast will assist with enhancing the onshore breeze along the mid-Atlantic coast.
Since a front and moisture will remain stalled over the southeastern U.S. into early next week, areas of torrential downpours and flooding can occur even with the system remaining at sea.
At this time, steering winds are likely to keep the center of the storm off the Carolina coast and the mid-Atlantic region as well next week.
However, this track may change.
The exact track over the western Atlantic will be dependent on how quickly the tropical feature strengthens as well as the position of high pressure in the Northeast and an approaching cool front in the Midwest next week.
As long as a blocking pattern does not develop, the storm will likely continue to move northeastward and stay at sea. However, should steering winds buckle due to a blocking pattern, the storm could be drawn back to the coast.
At this time, there is a greater chance of a track back toward the coast from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland, Canada, rather than the mid-Atlantic or New England at the end of next week.
There is another area in the Atlantic where a tropical storm may form
Elsewhere over the Atlantic Basin, Chantal, which was once a tropical storm, is losing strength and will dissipate over the middle of the ocean.
However, a new tropical disturbance, or wave, bears watching for organization and strengthening. This feature was about halfway between Africa and the Windward and Leeward islands as of Friday.
"This feature, located near 43 degrees west longitude on Friday, may become a depression or weak tropical storm as early as later Sunday or Monday," Kottlowski said.
The feature is expected to reach the Windward Islands around Tuesday or Wednesday.
"Weakening of this feature is likely as it moves into the Caribbean, where significant wind shear is forecast later next week," Kottlowski said.
It is possible that two features may be dubbed a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours of each other.
The next two names on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for the 2019 season are Dorian and Erin.
As additional tropical waves emerge from Africa, there will be an ongoing risk of development as wind shear, dry air and dust diminish over the Atlantic Basin in the coming weeks.
This is the time of the year when development can occur just about anywhere over the Atlantic, which means well at sea or near the coast of North America.
People should not expect the quietness of June, July and the first part of August to be a reflection on what the balance of the Atlantic hurricane season will bring.
AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate that multiple tropical storms and/or hurricanes to be in progress at the same time in the coming weeks.
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